[AusNOG] Long live the NBN. The NBN is dead?! [personal]

Wed Aug 11 17:24:30 EST 2010

Sorry *overbuild

Andrew Oskam
E  percy at th3interw3bs.net

NOTICE:
These comments are my own personal opinions only and do not necessarily reflect the positions or opinions of my employer or their affiliates. All comments are based upon my current knowledge and my own personal experiences. You should conduct independent tests to verify the validity of any statements made in this email before basing any decisions upon those statements.

On 11/08/2010, at 5:22 PM, Andrew Oskam wrote:

But see, this isn't something we can just flip a switch and turn on when the country needs it. If the country gets to a point where it actually needs a nationwide fibre network - it's going to take many years to put into play. By that point we're going to be kicking ourselves because we had an opportunity to get in early and get started and then we finally need it and we need to then wait  another ~8+ years for legislation to pass and fibre to be laid.

> and in any case how are we supposed to know what the requirements will be in 30 years time (the investment time of the NBN)??

Isn't fibre supposed to be flexible in terms of speed? doesn't it allow for ISPs to determine what speed they want to push down?

> Maybe wireless will be the be all and end all becuase everyone is using tablet's and phones?

Rather doubtful. Wireless is great "convenience" wise but it's not exactly perfect technology in terms of reliability, safety, and stability. I think you'll likely see wireless to continue as a technology used rurally and for those who need a backup connection or something to take on a trip.

> Maybe we'll be kicking ourselves because we put down the wrong type of fibre, and we're stuck paying off a useless investment that we have to overbuild again. 

Improve and expand? Yes ... Rebuild? No. I'd hardly say it's a useless investment. We really have no idea how technology will change in 3, 5, 10 or 20 years time and I'd rather spend my tax money ensuring that our broadband is the best we can provide to our businesses and families.

Andrew Oskam
E  percy at th3interw3bs.net

NOTICE:
These comments are my own personal opinions only and do not necessarily reflect the positions or opinions of my employer or their affiliates. All comments are based upon my current knowledge and my own personal experiences. You should conduct independent tests to verify the validity of any statements made in this email before basing any decisions upon those statements.

On 11/08/2010, at 5:09 PM, Matthew Zobel wrote:

See.  that's the thing about the market, when the need arises there will be a business case to implement it.  At which point there are plently of people on this list who represent companies that would be more than happy to meet that need.  And in any case how are we supposed to know what the requirements will be in 30 years time (the investment time of the NBN)??  Maybe wireless will be the be all and end all becuase everyone is using tablet's and phones? Maybe not.  Maybe we'll be kicking ourselves because we put down the wrong type of fibre, and we're stuck paying off a useless investment that we have to overbuild again. Point is we just don't know.  Better to give the market the flexibility to meet those needs as/when required.

On Wed, Aug 11, 2010 at 4:54 PM, Andrew Oskam <percy at th3interw3bs.net> wrote:
So are you saying that because fibre currently doesn't have any real benefit for the avg tax payer that we should never implement it unless the need suddenly arises?

What about future-proofing? Why wait 10 years for the need to suddenly come and then when you actually do need that fibre it's not there?

Sometimes it's not about what we had in the past and what we have now - it's about the future.

Andrew Oskam

E  percy at th3interw3bs.net

NOTICE:

These comments are my own personal opinions only and do not necessarily reflect the positions or opinions of my employer or their affiliates. All comments are based upon my current knowledge and my own personal experiences. You should conduct independent tests to verify the validity of any statements made in this email before basing any decisions upon those statements.

On 11/08/2010, at 4:28 PM, Matthew Zobel wrote:

On Wed, Aug 11, 2010 at 3:33 PM, Greg M <gregm at servu.net.au> wrote:
Hi Grahame,

My place of work would gladly pay that cost for me to be able to work ($5k NBN build up front) from home, however they wouldn’t fit a bill of say $50k+ if someone say Nextgen or Amcom/PIPE – whoever, was to lay fiber direct to my house if there wasn’t an NBN. 

But if the true cost is $50k vs $5k for the NBN your effectivily saying it's not economical to run fibre to your house.  That pretty much kills the "business case" for the NBN right there.  Why should the tax payer subsidise running fibre to your house when most everyone else won't get any real benefit from it.

No-one here has given even one compelling reason for FTTH.

IPTV
Smart Metering
coverged phone line and data (VoIP)
Teleconferrencing
etc

none of these offer any real value to the average tax payer.  

From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net [mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of Grahame Lynch
Sent: Wednesday, 11 August 2010 12:15 PM
To: Paul Brooks
Cc: ausnog at lists.ausnog.net

Subject: Re: [AusNOG] Long live the NBN. The NBN is dead?! [personal]

On 11 August 2010 11:04, Paul Brooks <pbrooks-ausnog at layer10.com.au> wrote:

Perhaps your need hasn't changed. Mine has, and over the next 10 - 30
years I suspect it will change more. I no longer have a single PC shared
by all in the household - I have several, each capable of saturating far
more capacity than thye one I had 10 years ago, along with several
people who all want to access network resources simultaneously. I'm
currently finding sub-1 Mbps upstream speeds quite limiting - and
economically and productively limiting - and others do too.
Paul I accept all that but I ask a question.

Are you personally prepared to pay for the real cost of that service since you experience a private benefit or productivity gain? Or should the cost of that be partly borne by others who don't necessarily share the productivity gain? That seems to be the nub of the issue here - most people will pay $40-50 a month for broadband but they wouldn't pay the implied $3,000-5,000 per household connection and activation cost of the NBN budget directly if asked to...in strict economic terms, it is a transfer from non-high speed broadband users to high speed broadband users where costs are very hazily proportioned between public and private interest criteria....

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