[AusNOG] IPv4 Exhaustion, APNIC EC, and James is a nice bloke ; -)

[James Spenceley]

Thanks Skeeve,

Does this make you the "campaign manager" :)

Certainly collecting the proxies at AusNOG is a great idea. I've  
started this process early to give us maximum time to prepare, other  
countries are very efficient in their proxy collection and have  
advantages due to distances and Industry organisations etc.

As for Noel's comments on IPv4 exhaustion, Geoff has a great site http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html

Currently there are 39 free /8s, of which the 5 final /8s will likely  
be reserved for different allocation policies (See prop-062 on the use  
of APNIC's final /8 http://www.apnic.net/policy/proposals/prop-062-v001.html) 
.

So that leaves us existing members with roughly 34 /8s for general  
consumption.

Currently the major 3 RIRs are allocating roughly 4 /8s per year  
(APNIC grew by 1 /8s from 2006), lets say LACNIC and AfriNIC will  
allocate 1 /8 each year on average and the 3 larger RIRs grow a /8  
between them (conservative) each over the next two years.

Leaving us with the following free /8s
Now:        34
July 2009:  19
July 2010:  3

China alone was allocated roughly 1.2 /8s last year and its a sure bet  
India and China will grow much faster each year.

Ok so there is no science there but however you work the math its 2-3  
years and that is assuming human nature doesn't kick in.

--
James


On 17/07/2008, at 12:21 PM, Skeeve Stevens wrote:

> Hey all, regarding the following Commsday article:
>
> Commsday – 10th July 2008
>
> Vocus CEO warns of IPv4 address exhaustion, runs for APNIC slot
>
> The CEO of internet start-up Vocus has issued a warning that IPv4  
> addresses are likely to run dry worldwide within just two or three  
> years, and exhorted Australian ISPs to take action. James Spencely  
> has also announced his own intention to run for a seat on the  
> Executive Committee, or Board, of the Asia Pacific Network  
> Information Centre.
>
>
> “The internet is running out of IPv4 space. Global exhaustion is  
> likely to happen in the next 2-3 years, so it’s a critical time for  
> Australia to start contributing to the allocation policies within  
> our region,” said Spencely.
>
>
> Accordingly, the Vocus CEO called for an Australian representative  
> to be appointed to the board of APNIC, which provides IP allocation  
> and registration services in the APAC region, and which – according  
> to Spenceley – draws 30% of its membership from Australian ISPs and  
> telcos. He plans to lead by example by running for a position at the  
> next elections, to be held in Manila in February 2009. Internet  
> Industry Association Chief Executive Peter Coroneos backed  
> Spencely’s bid for a seat on the APNIC board. “The IIA encourages  
> members to be active in policy development and we support James in  
> his election to the Executive Committee,” said Coroneos.
>
> Petroc Wilton
>
>
>
> While the rhetoric about IPv4 has been heard before, I am not sure  
> that it has given the urgency than it deserves in a lot of circles,  
> especially in the business/corporate space and in the area of tiny,  
> micro, small ISP’s that we work with.
>
> I applaud James and anyone else to whom the industry and media would  
> listen to about getting out there and saying something.  Perhaps a  
> few people like Simon Hackett, or other big ISP’s would be kind  
> enough to put out a press announcement about their IPv6 readiness  
> which might inspire others in the industry to kick off their plans.
>
> The IPv6 training that we hosted a few months ago was a great  
> success with a lot of the attendees now seriously talking about  
> their IPv6 deployments, applying for their allocations and looking  
> at what equipment is needed to go forward.  We’ve already expressed  
> to APNIC that my company would consider hosting it again later this  
> year.
>
> Re James going for a position on the Board or EC of APNIC, I can’t  
> think many people more appropriate or respected in this industry  
> with his experience that I would heartily support.
>
> Given Bambi’s failed attempt to get on the E.C, primarily because of  
> lack of organisations for proxy votes (I too was slack), I think we  
> can put a much more serious effort in at AUSNOG.  So what I am  
> proposing is that at AUSNOG we have the proxy forms available for  
> any of you to sign who aren’t a) expressing their vote directly b)  
> want to help the Australian internet community.
>
> I’ve spoken to the guys at APNIC on a number of occasions who are  
> disappointed with the lack of Australian representation on the E.C,  
> and overall general disappoint in the amount of people involved in  
> policies and so on.  I am thinking that it would be good for our  
> industry to form an APNIC Consultative Group with perhaps half a  
> dozen people who are willing to meet every now and then and come up  
> with policy changes/proposals.  At the moment, most of the other  
> member economies use their national NIC for this purpose, but since  
> AUNIC doesn’t exist anymore, that we could have our input via  
> another mechanism…. Thoughts?
>
> …Skeeve
>
>
> --
>
> Skeeve Stevens, Managing Director
>
> eintellego Pty Ltd - The ISP Specialists
>
> skeeve at eintellego.net / www.eintellego.net
>
> Phone: (+612) 8197 2760, Fax: (+612) 8572 9954
>
> Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 / skype://skeeve
>
> --
>
> NOC, NOC, who's there?
>
>
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