<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space;" class="">On Aug 10, 2016, at 7:09 PM, Simon Sharwood <<a href="mailto:simon@jargonmaster.com" class="">simon@jargonmaster.com</a>> wrote:<br class=""><div><br class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class=""><div dir="ltr" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" class=""><div class="">IBM isn't responding to anyone. the gummint won't say anything cogent. the talking points are clearly to say this is not an attack. If not, WTF is it?</div></div></div></blockquote><br class=""></div><div>Normal production utilization of a system that was capacity-planned by muppets who don’t know how to capacity-plan.</div><div><br class=""></div><div>ABS said they tested 1 million submissions per hour for 8 hours, and briefly tested 150% of that.</div><div><br class=""></div><div>They also launched a months-long PR campaign telling everyone they’d be fined if they didn’t submit, so I reckon they had 10 million households trying to submit between 7pm and 9pm after they finished dinner.</div><div><br class=""></div><div>That 2 hours turns into 5 hours when you smear it across several timezones. </div><div><br class=""></div><div>10 million households in 5 hours is 2 million submissions per hour if it’s constant. Capacity plan for at least 4 million per hour to deal with burstiness. Expect a big peak at the beginning of the time window, because Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne are the most populous cities and are all in the same timezone.</div><div><br class=""></div><div>Even if my estimates are out by a factor of 2, the ABS’s smug self-satisfied preening about their half-million-dollar load test were woefully underprovisioned.</div><div><br class=""></div><div>Pick apart my numbers above: See if you can find an error I’ve made or a point of disagreement that’d enable the ABS’s 1 million per hour figure to be good enough.</div><div><br class=""></div><div>This wasn’t a DoS, this was ten million Australian households doing what they were told to do, on a system that was designed by people who haven’t the faintest idea what they were doing.</div><div><br class=""></div><div> - mark</div><div><br class=""></div><br class=""></body></html>