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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 23/07/2014 11:01 PM, Paul Jones
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote
cite="mid:B7F2379062E32745A8651FBDB20F6459312E9653@Server.waterlogic.com.au"
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">So
overall I would argue that the market for fixed line
connections hasn’t ever gone backwards, and is never likely
to until such times as we can replace “a box” in the
garage/study with a different box that happens to have a sim
card and antenna, and have our customers not really notice
the difference, either in QOS, $$$, or GB.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Wireless
is an entirely new and predominantly different market, but
it unfortunately gets classified in the same category as
fixed line. Same with M2M, where a gargantuan quota is 300
MB.<br>
</span></p>
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</blockquote>
<br>
Indeed. The ABS stats separate out mobile handsets with data
capability from the 'wireless broadband' category, which includes
data-only SIM devices, USB sticks etc.<br>
<br>
"<font size="2">c) Wireless includes satellite, fixed wireless,
mobile wireless via a datacard, dongle, USB modem or tablet SIM
card and other wireless broadband. Excludes data downloaded via
mobile handsets which is reported in the mobile handset chapter. "<br>
<br>
</font>So the ABS mobile wireless category includes all the
SIM-enabled iPads and probably SIM-enabled Kindles, which can hardly
be described as fixed-line replacements at all. By including these
in the table along with DSL, cable, satellite and other 'one per
structure' technologies hopelessly distorts the usefulness of the
statistics and leaves them wide open for abuse of interpretation.<br>
<br>
For all the 'wireless broadband' devices, data use equates to 6 GB
per *quarter* to Dec2013, or 2 GB/month.<br>
<br>
Digging deeper, we <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:find....http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/8153.0Chapter8December%202013">find....http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/8153.0Chapter8December%202013</a><br>
"For the 20.3 million mobile handset subscribers, this equates to
0.5 GB of data downloaded per subscriber per month."<br>
<br>
An average of 2GB/month for data-only devices, and 0.5 GB/month for
phone handsets, indicates to me that these are NOT being primarily
used as a replacement for fixed-line residential broadband services
- and probably aren't going to be used for enabling all the devices
in a home to stream Netflix through (to drag this back on topic).<br>
<br>
Also - the number of 'mobile wireless' services *decreased* in the
latest half-year stats, as did fixed wireless and satellite, to the
tune of 113,000, while the number of real fixed-line services
increased 163,000. You could interpret this as fixed replacing
wireless rather than vice versa (I wouldn't).<br>
The number of fixed-line services has never gone backwards - it has
slowed as we approached saturation.<br>
<br>
All of which goes to point out that anyone who cites the ABS figures
as showing "half of all Internet connections in Australia are
wireless.", or predicting the death of fixed-line, could read a
little deeper.<br>
<br>
Paul.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote
cite="mid:B7F2379062E32745A8651FBDB20F6459312E9653@Server.waterlogic.com.au"
type="cite">
<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><br>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Cheers,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Paul<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""
lang="EN-US">From:</span></b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""
lang="EN-US"> AusNOG
[<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:ausnog-bounces@lists.ausnog.net">mailto:ausnog-bounces@lists.ausnog.net</a>]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Robert Hudson<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, 23 July 2014 9:37 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> Mark ZZZ Smith<br>
<b>Cc:</b> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:ausnog@lists.ausnog.net">ausnog@lists.ausnog.net</a>; Paul Brooks<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusNOG] Netflix in AU, break up Go4, or
TPG peering breakup?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On 23 July 2014 20:57, Mark ZZZ Smith
<<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:markzzzsmith@yahoo.com.au"
target="_blank">markzzzsmith@yahoo.com.au</a>>
wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC
1.0pt;padding:0cm 0cm 0cm
6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0cm">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I still think it is significant
that around half of all Internet connections in
Australia are wireless.<o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">The only thing surprising about
that is that the figure you've quoted isn't higher.
That said, I find that particular statistic to be
pretty useless - and here's why.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">In my household, I have three
wireless broadband connections (two mobile phones with
data plans, plus a pre-paid 4G WiFi AP) and a single
wired connection. And I don't have children who have
their own mobile phones or devices - that number could
easily climb to six or more wireless connections
without any significant effort - and that's without
having extended family in the house - and it's
becoming more and more common to have more than two
generations in a household.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Wireless is brilliant for certain
things. Consuming large amounts of data is not one of
those things (at least not in this market, I
acknowledge that the bottleneck in Australia isn't the
capability of the technology).<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">The consumption of content over
wireless in this country is still very small. It's
possible to get a ridiculously large quota (I get
150GB a month if memory serves, I honestly don't even
think about quota on my ADSL service any more, but I
know I'm WAY below the maximum quota available on
basic consumer ADSL services) on wired for less than I
pay for 1.5GB a month on Telsta 4G (on which I can't
even download a single DVD ISO without paying stupidly
obscene excess data charges - assuming it works at all
when I'm on the move, given even the best 4G network
in the country still has black spots and massive
congestion issues at times).<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Back to my first line - what is
more interesting than the number of raw wired and
wireless connections is the volume of data consumed
on wired vs wireless connections - wireless
connections have been relatively static for years in
terms of how much data is downloaded per month (and
have actually gone backwards slightly over the last
two years), whereas the amount of data consumed by
wired connections seems to double every couple of
years (if even that long) - and I bet if you found
information on the data produced from wireless and
wired connections, it'd be even more glaringly
obviously biased in favour of wired).<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
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