No shock at all, but if they aren't a cheap hosting provider and have sufficient margins then running out of IPv4 space shouldn't really impact their business, as they can buy more on the open market with relative ease. If a company gets down to half a /24 left and can see they only have 6 months during which they can fulfill current/new customer requests for IP space, then they know they need to either buy more space to extend that period, or slow down their growth (by increasing prices).<div>
<br></div><div>Looking at China telecom for an example, they've taken the approach of not turning away new customers but instead allowing them all to fight over IPs to connect, which will continue to get worse and worse as time goes on. This will resolve itself inevitably either by CT losing customers to reach a stable equilibrium, or deciding the cost/benefit of implementing v6/NAT/whatever tipping point has been reached and therefore maintaining growth.</div>
<div><br></div><div>Is anyone on this list that is running low on IP space actually going to lose any business, or will they simply fail to grow (as much)? Obviously inner workings business secrets aside it might be hard for people to step up and admit it, but I think it is reasonable to assume I'm not posing an irrefutable question here.<br>
<br><div class="gmail_quote">On Sun, Mar 3, 2013 at 2:28 PM, Bevan Slattery <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:bevan@slattery.net.au" target="_blank">bevan@slattery.net.au</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="auto"><div>This appears as though it may come as a shock to you Joshua but not everyone running out of space is a cheap hosting provider.</div><div class="im"><div><br></div><div>B</div><div><br>Sent from my iPhone</div>
</div><div><div class="h5"><div><br>On 03/03/2013, at 12:15 PM, Joshua D'Alton <<a href="mailto:joshua@railgun.com.au" target="_blank">joshua@railgun.com.au</a>> wrote:<br><br></div><blockquote type="cite"><div>
Size of the business doesn't really matter, its the margins that matter. You look at someone like Bulletproof, and while they probably don't do much more traffic than say serversaustralia, I'd bet they charge about 5x as much. And they support IPv6 AFAIK.<div>
<br></div><div>@Peter, yea but there is only no benefit because the content providers like serversaustralia don't support it. Obviously it isn't limited to just Australia, most of serversaustralia sized businesses globally don't support IPv6, but imagine if they did.</div>
<div><br></div><div>@Ross, might or might not make sense, but reality is reality. It isn't so much about them footing the bill for everyone else to change, it is about them being competitive in the market. If there is a business, 2yrs or 20 years old, that is facing growth issues due to lack of IP space, then it is up to them to decide how they want to remain competitive. They could moan and groan about IPv4 prices coming down and the fact they can't get any more, or they could move to ipv6 where the potentially large upgrade cost becomes merely nominal if they look 20 years ahead.</div>
<div><br></div><div>All these arguments seem to mirror the ones the copyright groups use. Somehow it is the rest of the worlds duty to keep their old dying business model alive.<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Sun, Mar 3, 2013 at 12:53 PM, Zone Networks - Joel <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:joel@zonenetworks.com.au" target="_blank">joel@zonenetworks.com.au</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div lang="EN-AU" link="blue" vlink="purple"><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d">So what you are basically saying ..<u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d">Small business cant afford to move to ipv6 <u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d">Large business can afford to move to ipv6 but couldnt give a damn..<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d">That is brilliant… so Aus has <1% ipv6 traffic and that is cause of all the small business not running ipv6<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"">From:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif""> <a href="mailto:ausnog-bounces@lists.ausnog.net" target="_blank">ausnog-bounces@lists.ausnog.net</a> [mailto:<a href="mailto:ausnog-bounces@lists.ausnog.net" target="_blank">ausnog-bounces@lists.ausnog.net</a>] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Joshua D'Alton<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Sunday, 3 March 2013 12:34 PM<br><b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:AusNOG@lists.ausnog.net" target="_blank">AusNOG@lists.ausnog.net</a><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusNOG] IPv4<u></u><u></u></span></p><div><div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">No one forced them into business. No one made them go for lower margins that would mean they aren't/weren't IPv6 ready.<u></u><u></u></p><div><p class="MsoNormal">
<u></u> <u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">If they decided to hop onto the sinking ship without a lifevest, its their own damn fault. If they went into business with software like cPanel and did nothing to try push for proper IPv6 support, again that is their own fault. Bigpond and Optus have very little reason from content serving perspective to have IPv6, so it was up to the major sources of content to get their side ready so that people like Bigpond and Optus actually had benefit in rolling out IPv6. Do you think David Thodey is going to go to his board and say "oh hey guys, here's a $100 million proposal to ready our network for IPv6, of course it won't benefit anyone as none of the content out there is IPv6, but it will cost us more if we have to do it later" and get an answer anything other than "bugger off, not interested, it might cost us more later but all we care about is this years bottom line, screw the future that is the next CEOs problem"?<u></u><u></u></p>
</div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">Maybe instead of looking at it like the world is shafting these smaller businesses, maybe look at it like the world has given them a free ride all this time, and now it is time for them to step up. And if that means their business folds, well that means more customers for businesses that WILL survive and manage to implement IPv6 before the 22nd century.<u></u><u></u></p>
</div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt">I gotta tell you though, over the past year or so there have been some fairly massive players on the global stage that have all started charging a lot more for IPv4, and aside from a few complaints from businesses being run out of India or Malaysia or somewhere where low margins work really well, the majority of customers have understood the reality of the cost of IPv4. And none of them have left the providers, because while the IPv4 cost increased, overall these lowish margin providers are still a damn sight cheaper than the majority of companies. <u></u><u></u></p>
<div><p class="MsoNormal">On Sun, Mar 3, 2013 at 12:21 PM, Peter Betyounan <<a href="mailto:peter@serversaustralia.com.au" target="_blank">peter@serversaustralia.com.au</a>> wrote:<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">
So basically any new businesses that are 1/4 of that age are<br>collateral damage in this mess , great view.<br><br>There is no force behind change then software providers like Cpanel<br>who would hold half the worlds content would move faster on forward<br>
planning on ipv6. Big providers are at fault as it has been said no<br>residential move has been made by the likes of bigpond and Optus so<br>take up has been short of nil by market as no substantial end users<br>have ipv6.<br>
<br>Laying the blame on small providers is plain wrong.<br><br>Regards<br><span><span style="color:#888888">Peter Betyounan</span></span><span style="color:#888888"><br><span><a href="http://www.serversaustralia.com.au" target="_blank">www.serversaustralia.com.au</a></span></span><u></u><u></u></p>
<div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><br><br>On 03/03/2013, at 7:06 AM, Mark Smith <<a href="mailto:markzzzsmith@yahoo.com.au" target="_blank">markzzzsmith@yahoo.com.au</a>> wrote:<br><br>><br>>> ________________________________<br>
>> From: Peter Betyounan <<a href="mailto:peter@serversaustralia.com.au" target="_blank">peter@serversaustralia.com.au</a>><br>>> To: Jared Hirst <<a href="mailto:jared.hirst@serversaustralia.com.au" target="_blank">jared.hirst@serversaustralia.com.au</a>><br>
>> Cc: "<a href="mailto:ausnog@lists.ausnog.net" target="_blank">ausnog@lists.ausnog.net</a>" <<a href="mailto:ausnog@lists.ausnog.net" target="_blank">ausnog@lists.ausnog.net</a>><br>>> Sent: Saturday, 2 March 2013 7:16 PM<br>
>> Subject: Re: [AusNOG] IPv4<br>>><br>>><br>>> As I have always thought without forceful intervention by the governing bodies change will not come, financial incentives/penalties will be the key to this and until all big business can feel this change will not come why would it when they can CGNAT / buy more IP's / etc etc . The issue here is small to medium business who do not have the funds to buy more IP's will eventually die automatically monopolizing the market by leaving the big players which sucks for competition..../end rant.<br>
><br>> It won't specifically be IPv6 or running out of IPv4 addresses that will have caused these businesses to fail. What those businesses will have really done is failed to plan ahead. In this instance, they've had 10 to 15 years to prepare and plan, and to incorporate the costs of the future upgrade into their current product prices. In most other instances e.g. a new tax, they'll have less than 12 months to prepare for it. A business that can't plan ahead with a 10 to 15 year notification period probably shouldn't deserve to survive, because it also probably doing a lot of other things wrong too, and has such slim margins that it doesn't have any ability to cope with the reasonable yet unexpected cost increases. Would they survive if power prices go up by 20%?<br>
><br>> This sounds harsh, but it is the reality. Businesses that aren't good at being a business fail, and the resources they weren't utilising very well (e.g. people, infrastructure), are absorbed into businesses that are better at being businesses.<br>
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