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Noggers,<br>
<br>
My main 3 problems are:<br>
<br>
[1] Sat NSP#1 has <b>no</b> ipv6 migration policy or plan in place,<br>
[2] Sat NSP#2 has been told ipv6 migration is "too expensive" by
their MSP,<br>
[3] Fibre NSP has not rolled out support for DSCP Mapping on ipv6.<br>
<br>
SkyMesh has an ipv6 /32, "the only address space we'll ever need
this century" and the SkyMesh backbone has ipv6 deployed.<br>
<br>
SkyMesh has already chosen DS Lite when problems [1], [2] and [3] go
away.<br>
<br>
Now, [3] goes away some time this year, [2] maybe in 2014/2015 (too
late) and [1] will just keep wasting time and money, as usual.<br>
<br>
(In fairness, [3] can do ipv6 now, over IPoE or PPPoE, dscp support
disappears under all pppoe and/or ipv6.)<br>
<br>
Right now, I'll looking into getting 2+ old Cisco G2's and running
them exclusively doing NAT, and getting back a /17 from [1].<br>
<br>
That /17 will last only 6 months on the new [2] network ... as they
force SkyMesh to use a /30 per client.<br>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">Terence C. Sweetser
Engineering Manager
SkyMesh Pty Ltd
Licensed Telecommunications Carrier
ABN 62 113 609 439
37 Baxter Street
FORTITUDE VALLEY Q 4006
</pre>
<br>
On 14/03/12 00:03, Skeeve Stevens wrote:
<blockquote
cite="mid:CAEUfUGPHX_PJt182ghimgGbsxC1MwF0Bp=REuX2N=WGrMqC1VQ@mail.gmail.com"
type="cite">
<div>So, as a continuation to my previous reply, here are my
predictions on what will most likely happen in this region (not
just Australia).</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>- APNIC runs out of IPv4 (We are here)</div>
<div>- ISPs start to run out of IPv4 (We're almost here)</div>
<div>- ISPs try to buy IPv4 from those who have it spare <b>(Starting
to happen now - March 2012 - mark the date)</b></div>
<div>- Cost of IPv4 starts to rocket like gold (from now onwards)</div>
<div>- At some point they realise it will cost less to build
solutions to extend IPv4 - such as Carrier Grade NAT (CGN)/Large
Scale NAT (LSN) technologies - all of which are evil and very
broken - but there is no choice</div>
<div>- ISPs will demand their vendors come up with CGN/LSN
solutions - Vendors will love it and charge a premium for broken
products. Some may even come up with standards breaking
solutions which do actually work.</div>
<div>
- ISPs will implement broken CGN/LSN solutions which will
prolong the life of their IPv4 pools</div>
<div>- ISPs will start to charge end users to have a real IPv4
address - to pay for the acquisition of more</div>
<div>- Many end-users will end up with reduced functionality until
they can move to IPv6</div>
<div>- Some ISPs will start to use address space that does not
belong to them. People start to scramble to keep their networks
going</div>
<div>- Some ISPs will start to implement native IPv6 long after
others to catch up but will find their customers have gone
elsewhere</div>
<div>- Users who don't like the broken-ness will replace their old
routers with IPv6 ones and go to ISPs who have native IPv6</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>In the end, the end users don't care about IP
addressing (Generalising - 98% don't). They want to type a name
in, and get what they want. It doesn't matter to them how it
works. Businesses may care a bit more, but unlikely. There is
NO killer app for IPv6 yet and there is unlikely to be one for
quite sometime.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>To all the ISPs out there who are waiting on a business case
for IPv6 - you are fools... I am sorry, but it is as simple as
that. There will NEVER EVER be any valid business care that
matters "right now", the time when you need to be thinking about
it - except one - Staying in business.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>But, it will take most ISPs a year or two to fully integrate
IPv6 into their networks, and those who haven't started doing it
yet, might as well be planning to shut down their businesses
because in the next year or two, it will be too late... smart
ISPs like Internode will have already done it (but probably
still have work to do). Telstra has been spending millions on
it for years now to get ready for it - but they are in a
different position to everyone else - they HAVE the money to do
whatever solutions they need to do to survive.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>At some point there is going to be many people selling snake
oil, promising to make things better, selling dodgy solutions
that many will buy into and end up in a mess and go bust.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>At eintellego we've been implementing IPv6 solutions for our
customers for 2 years now, but even many of them have only
partially embraced IPv6 - no matter what we tell them. It is
our experience that it takes a good year to fully get up to
speed, even in a small ISPs network. Things that need to be
considered are:</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>- Transit (Native IPv6)</div>
<div>- Core network (Routers, Switches, Firewalls, Appliances)</div>
<div>- Server Operating Systems (Windows, Linux, VMware, etc)</div>
<div>- Application awareness (DNS, Mail, Web, Authentication, etc
etc)</div>
<div>- Operational Support Systems (Provisioning, Accounting,
Network Management, etc)</div>
<div>- Device support - KVM, PDU, Printers, VoIP, Cameras,
Building Management, NTU's, blah blah blah</div>
<div>- Access technologies - Dial (its still used!), xDSL,
Ethernet (easiest!), Wireless, Mobile, NBN (can it even do v6
yet?!)</div>
<div>- Redeveloping user facing systems (DNS, web, etc etc)</div>
<div>- Training staff - helpdesk, provisioning staff, engineers,
etc</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>All of which has to be paid for - by management who has no
idea what on earth is going on and why they need to pay for it.
They will ask for the business case; the techies will look
confused as they try to justify the coming armageddon to the
bean counters..... </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Even the little tier 3 reseller ISPs have most of the above
list that they need to be seriously considering.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Many of the tiny-small ISPs I know about need a large part of
infrastructure replaced - and they are the least likely to be
able to afford it.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>We've had no more IPv4 available from APNIC for over a year
now. There are still only a few carriers in Australia who are
offering IPv6 - some countries still don't even have it at all -
especially in the Pacific region.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>What is the easy way out? There isn't any. Some of my
fellow directors at The Internet Society of Australia are still
quite passionate about IPv6 evangelism... me... I'm rather meh
(whatever) about it these days. The way I view things is that
IPv6 is going to come, whether anyone likes it or not, and this
situation is akin to telling people that they should have safe
sex or shouldn't smoke. Many people - those who think they know
better - they need to experience what is going to happen for
themselves.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Speaking on behalf of me, an industry veteran, the CEO of
eintellego, a Director of ISOC-AU and the ISP Liaison, community
member, and whatever other roles I do.</div>
<br clear="all">
<br>
<div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;">
<div style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: rgb(127, 0,
127); font-size: 13px;"><font style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);
font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;" color="#002060">
<p style="margin: 0px; font: 13px Calibri;">
<b>Skeeve Stevens, CEO</b></p>
</font></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 13px;
font-family: Calibri;">eintellego Pty Ltd</span></div>
<div><span style="font-size: 13px; font-family: Calibri;"><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:skeeve@eintellego.net" target="_blank">skeeve@eintellego.net</a> ; <a
moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://www.eintellego.net"
target="_blank">www.eintellego.net</a></span><span
style="color: rgb(127, 0, 127); font-size: 13px;"><font
style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:
Calibri,sans-serif;" color="#002060">
<p style="margin: 0px; font: 13px Calibri;">
Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; font: 13px Calibri;">Cell +61
(0)414 753 383 ; <a moz-do-not-send="true">skype://skeeve</a></p>
<p style="margin: 0px; font: 13px Calibri;"><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://facebook.com/eintellego"
target="_blank">facebook.com/eintellego</a></p>
<p style="margin: 0px; font: 13px Calibri;">
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://twitter.com/networkceoau"
target="_blank">twitter.com/networkceoau</a> ; <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve"
target="_blank">www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve</a></p>
<p style="margin: 0px; font: 13px Calibri;">
PO Box 7726, Baulkham Hills, NSW 1755 Australia</p>
</font></span><span style="color: rgb(127, 0, 127);
font-size: 13px;">
<div><span style="color: rgb(127, 0, 127); font-size:
13px;"><img moz-do-not-send="true"
src="http://eintellego.net/sig/logo.png"><br>
</span></div>
The Experts Who The Experts Call</span></div>
<div style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(127, 0, 127);"><span
style="color: rgb(0, 32, 96); font-size: 13px;">Juniper -
Cisco – Brocade - IBM</span></div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<pre wrap="">
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</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Terence C. Sweetser
Engineering Manager
SkyMesh Pty Ltd
Licensed Telecommunications Carrier
ABN 62 113 609 439
37 Baxter Street
FORTITUDE VALLEY Q 4006
</pre>
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