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<div>I'd suggest 5 years at the outset.</div>
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<div>Problem is how people measure time. Look how old the iPad is… 1 year… iPhone, 3? A LOT is happening in a very short time these days… Ramp-up to v6 will be fast, but the trailing legacy kit will hang around for a while… but not much longer than 5 I would
think as most kit is turning over quite quickly.</div>
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<div>5 years ago we were still selling dialup… when was the last time you saw a modem? Yes, I am sure some of you have… but really… in someones home, being used to connect to an ISP? It would have to be EXTREMELY rare.</div>
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<div>On 15/04/11 11:36 AM, "Michael Biber" <<a href="mailto:mbiber@ipv6forum.com.au">mbiber@ipv6forum.com.au</a>> wrote:</div>
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<div>Been saying for years that IPv4 will endure while the pain of supporting</div>
<div>both protocols is manageable (be that cost, NAT, security, troubleshooting,</div>
<div>OAM or wherever the pain exists). There will come a time when it is no</div>
<div>longer bearable and wholesale conversion to v6 only will become the norm.</div>
<div>Optimistically...5 years, ... pessimistically? ...maybe 15 years. Vint Cerf</div>
<div>once said that he expected v4 to endure in the 'net for a further 40 years.</div>
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<div>Mike Biber</div>
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<div>-----Original Message-----</div>
<div>From: <a href="mailto:ausnog-bounces@lists.ausnog.net">ausnog-bounces@lists.ausnog.net</a></div>
<div>[<a href="mailto:ausnog-bounces@lists.ausnog.net">mailto:ausnog-bounces@lists.ausnog.net</a>] On Behalf Of Lincoln Dale</div>
<div>Sent: Friday, 15 April 2011 9:02 AM</div>
<div>To: Scott Howard</div>
<div>Cc: <a href="mailto:ausnog@ausnog.net">ausnog@ausnog.net</a></div>
<div>Subject: Re: [AusNOG] [v6z] Why you shouldn't worry about switching to IPv6</div>
<div>now</div>
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<div>On 15/04/2011, at 8:12 AM, Scott Howard wrote:</div>
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<div>Ask yourself which you find more disturbing - this article, or the that I</div>
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<div>can count the number of ISPs in Australia that are even close to being IPv6</div>
<div>ready on one hand.</div>
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<div>the real point is that with IPv4 exhaustion, 'new' sites on the internet may</div>
<div>be IPv6-only addresses.</div>
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<div>the article author seems to assume that every ISP will magically provide</div>
<div>means for IPv4-only customers to connect to IPv6-only sites - for those</div>
<div>customers that aren't dual-stack CPE capable.</div>
<div>i think thats a damn big assumption.</div>
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<div>cheers,</div>
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<div>lincoln.</div>
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