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<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Hi All,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Please do not take offence to
this email, it is not intended that way. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Good speech and I agree with the
principles discussed and how he structured his speech, it just still upsets me so
much that the numbers are still so misrepresented, if it was all so good why
use numbers that are so obviously wrong.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>If it could be as low as $27bill
+$10bil extra funding that would be fantastic but even if the NBN could “walk
on water” and achieve this crazy understated number, I guess that he did
not add the $9bill plus that he has to pay Telstra nor the operational costs of
at least 10%pa of maintaining a network, and if the NBN intend to innovate and
improve you need to add another truckload of money. The NBN is not innovation it
is simply deploying existing technology. Add I guess that the interest is being
paid by the government (except the $10b funding NBN will seek independently) <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>My calculator tells me that applying
the current Bond Rate of about 5% just to fund and not repay the debt and
repair the network that’s at least $6billion per year in funding costs
and then add the operational costs of x. Divide that number by subscribers (22.4
million divided by 2.3 persons per household ABS stat and assume 50% uptake ”yes
there will be competition”) is a cost of at least $60 per connected user
per month before you start to repay the huge debt. This is lower than what CSP’s
are charging for the circuits (Internodes’ plans start at $30per month).
That’s a <b>Net Loss</b> of $30 per month per connection. That’s a
possible <b>net loss before</b> operating expenses or retirement of debt of
$3,000,000,000 per year. How is that ever going to repay the debt?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>It’s great to say that the
NBN does not report to shareholders, <b>but are we not the shareholders</b>???
It is comforting to know that the operator of the network does not care about
the cash!!! Sorry starting to rant....<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Many people (families with kids
not industry) I have spoken to are planning on reducing or cancelling their
home internet connections, as they just need occasional 3G style internet
access and get the internet they need when they are at work. i.e. they intend
to have no “fixed line” internet at home at all. My point that
using the whole population as an index/base value if very misleading actually
very wrong.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Please release a real number of
how many end users have actually signed and are using the NBN in Tasmania and extrapolate
this across the population to give us a real idea of how broke we are all going
to be?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>These other projects that the
NBN refer to were the only option (no competition). Everyone knows that fixed
line services are not the only options today and in the future so it is an
apples and orange example and not even slightly “real”. To say
there will be no competition and the NBN will operate in a complete monopoly without
alternatives is naive to say the least.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>I am not slamming the NBN or the
concept I think that this is fantastic concept, I am just so upset with an
obviously political speech and misstated numbers. Anyone with some idea can see
how wrong the numbers are. Even if my examples above are extremely fiscally inaccurate
it is still a financial disaster. My own modelling suggests that is will be a financially
worse outcome not better.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>As a person that signs the front
of cheques I know that there is no such thing as certainty with regard to the
future, although the NBN seem to speak with such certainty.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Again, I am not having a go at
anyone just so upset with the constant misstatement of costs, otherwise “up
up and away!!”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>And MMC before you ask your “give
us a better plan” question, there are other options and ways that I have
seen floating around, but many are commercially sensitive and that is why
nobody answers that question.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Kindest Regards<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> ausnog-bounces@lists.ausnog.net
[mailto:ausnog-bounces@lists.ausnog.net] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Skeeve Stevens<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, 18 August 2010 8:03 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> ausnog@ausnog.net<br>
<b>Subject:</b> [AusNOG] NBN Co CEO Quigley Speech 20100818<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'>Hey all,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'>Here is Mike Quigley’s
speech at an ACS (Australian Computer Society) luncheon in Sydney today
(20100818).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'>This is an excellent speech
which explains a lot<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'>...Skeeve<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'>With thanks to ITNews.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style='border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0cm 0cm 1.0pt 0cm'>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p><strong>Mike Quigley, 2010 Charles Todd Memorial Oration</strong><o:p></o:p></p>
<p>It is an honour to be here today giving this Charles Todd Memorial Oration
in the company of many of Australia's telecommunications leaders. When, many
months ago, I accepted the invitation to speak here today little did I know
that it would be just a few days before a Federal election, the outcome of
which will have a profound impact on our industry.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>But here I am, the CEO of the company charged with building the NBN, which
as we all know has become rather a hot political issue. So, I was left with the
question, what to do?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>My conclusion was to take a deep breath and just tell it as I see it -
without fear or favour. This is what I did just last week when we made the
announcement that we would be providing a 1 Gbps product.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>We had been working on this for quite some time and I saw no reason not to
follow our usual practice, which was to make the industry aware of our
conclusions. We are continuing to do this. So we released our Product Overview
documents for our Fibre, Wireless and Satellite products yesterday.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Tomorrow we will be releasing a more detailed 80-page technical Product
Description document for our Fibre product.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I was also conscious of my responsibility to try to ensure the public debate
surrounding the NBN is as fact-based as is possible given the current
circumstances. I came out of retirement for this project because I believe this
is the right way to deliver a national broadband network for Australia.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>So, I plan to use this speech to outline:<o:p></o:p></p>
<ol start=1 type=1>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l3 level1 lfo1'>Why it's better to invest $27 billion rather than
spend $6 billion<o:p></o:p></li>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l3 level1 lfo1'>Creating a monopoly helps competition<o:p></o:p></li>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l3 level1 lfo1'>Why a ubiquitous broadband network isn't just
equitable, it's essential for the delivery of social, economic and
productivity benefits<o:p></o:p></li>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l3 level1 lfo1'>Why wireless can't, on its own, serve all our
long term broadband needs but a combination of wireless and fibre can.<o:p></o:p></li>
</ol>
<p>In fact, there is an even more fundamental point I would like to address -
the veritable elephant in the room, in fact, the "white elephant" in
the room.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Some have claimed that the FTTP network would end up not being used because
of the growing capability of mobile networks. But why then are some very large
and very experienced commercial Telcos investing in fibre architectures, both
FTTN and FTTP.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I am talking about some of the biggest telcos in the world such as AT&T,
Verizon and DT. They all have large mobile networks yet they have heavily
invested in fibre access.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Even more interestingly, I heard just earlier this week, from a Chinese
equipment vendor that China Mobile, the world's largest mobile operator, is now
looking at deploying FTTP.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Are all these Telcos wrong about the future of FTTP?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>These are some interesting questions, but first I would like to return to
decisions made 140 years ago to build the Overland Telegraph, which was
supervised by Charles Todd.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>The Overland Telegraph cost £480,000, equivalent to just under a $1 billion
in today's terms. The total cost was met entirely by the tax-payers of South
Australia and was equivalent to 60% of the state's annual budget.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>This was the first of the three major investments that have been made in
Australia's fixed line telecommunications infrastructure.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>The second was made just after the end of WW2, when the PMG committed £42
million to rollout today's copper Customer Access Network. In today's dollars
this was a commitment of around AU$10 billion. Even more extraordinary is the
fact that in 1950 Australian Government public debt was at about 80
percent of GDP, more than 10 times the level of today's public debt.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>The Overland Telegraph and the copper CAN, built using public funds, were
great public investments that have paid for themselves many times over in
social, economic and productivity benefits.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Let's have a look at what was happening 60 years ago, when this decision was
made. This is compliments of the Telstra History Museum. The third major fixed
line investment was attempted by the private sector. I am referring of course
to the investment in HFC technology by two private companies.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>We all know that the infrastructure was duplicated as the two companies
chased each other up and down streets until they both called a halt to their
rollouts. In terms of the utilisation of scarce capital, this multi-billion
dollar duplication of access assets was not an ideal outcome.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>As Optus itself noted almost a decade ago:<i> </i>"Building-out the HFC
cable is not an economically viable option. Other broadband technologies are
more economic, particularly DSL."<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>So, of the three fixed line infrastructure builds in Australia - two were
great successes and were built by the public sector. This is why when it comes
to telecoms infrastructure investment we should not accept the simplistic
mantra of "private markets good, public investments bad".<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I want to be clear at this point that except for the last 12 months, I have
lived my professional life in the private sector in a large commercial telecoms
company. I am a great believer in markets and the ability of competition to
drive innovation.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>But that does not mean that I believe there is no place for public sector
investment in telecommunications infrastructure. In some cases it is the only
way to make the big investments that are critical to our future prosperity.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>No commercial entity will provide good telecommunications services to
everyone across this vast nation of ours without Government intervention of one
sort or another. No purely commercial company can take the long term view that
is required to build the next fixed line platform that Australia now needs.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>The Overland Telegraph that Charles Todd built using public funding lasted
more than 50 years, the copper CAN that was built using public funds has now
lasted more than 60 years. The fibre infrastructure on which the NBN is based,
and which the Australian public is now in a position to build, will last for
the next 50 years.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>If you are an executive that has to face the pressures of quarterly earnings
calls, it is simply not possible to put the long-term public good as your
number one priority. You are paid to represent the shareholders interests.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>But a publicly funded Telco such as NBN Co can take a very different view.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Our very "raison d'etre", in NBN Co, is to execute the
Government's policy for broadbanding Australia in the most cost effective way
possible - taking a long term view of the national interest.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>And I would like to stress that we are a Telco. We are not a Government
department.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>We are a GBE that is staffed by experienced Telco professionals most of whom
have joined the Company because they want to be part of this nation building
project. So we have a publicly owned Telco which has been set up to build the
next generation of wireline infrastructure for Australia - a fibre network
which we can expect to last at least as long as the copper network.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>So the question is, is it a good use of public financing to build the NBN?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I believe the answer to that question is yes. Not only because of the
advantages that a national fibre network provides, but because it will
simultaneously correct the industry structure problem which has limited the
Australian telecom's landscape for more than a decade.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>We probably all agree that separating wholesale and retail networks is a
good thing.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Paul Fletcher in his book "<em>Wired Brown Land</em>" wrote what
you see up on this slide: "My fundamental argument is that we need to get
the market structure right first if we do that, the right technology will
follow.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>"A market structure in which there are multiple providers of retail
telephony and broadband services - and they all operate over the same network
on equal terms. For that to happen, none of them must own or control the
network. Instead, they must buy services from the owner of the network' and in
turn the network owner must be restricted to selling services in the wholesale
market rather than the retail market."<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I think Paul absolutely nailed it with these words, arguing for a single
national wholesale only provider. But I understand why people ask the question
- "How is it that a Government controlled monopoly can improve
competition?"<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>The wholesale network should be a monopoly, because to build duplicate
access networks makes little sense. To build a collection of disparate access
networks would be almost as bad.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>So who should own the wholesale network? If it is in private hands, you
would expect the management of the wholesale company to strive to maximise
shareholders returns. We should not expect national interests, including the
guarantee of good service to rural and remote communities, to be top of the
priority list.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>My view after spending 36 years in the telecoms industry, and having
observed at close quarters access models all around the world, is that an
efficiently run, publicly owned, wholesale Telco whose objectives are to maximise
the public interest, is a good solution.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>It is much easier to deliver nationwide e-Health and remote education
services on a standardised and ubiquitous network. On the contrary, it's rather
difficult to deliver these services on a patchwork of technologies - it's been
tried in other countries.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>The NBN will be a wholesale only network which will provide the underlying
broadband capability to all players on equivalent terms. NBN Co is working
closely with the ACCC to ensure that the Company is subject to strict
regulatory oversight for the long term.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>As most players in the Telecoms industry in Australia know, we have a
fundamental industry structure problem that is finally being addressed with the
NBN. This is a major breakthrough.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>In reaching the seven percent of Australia's premises that are not
within the fibre footprint, NBN Co will be providing a 12Mb/s service on
wireless and satellite that is as close to the fibre product as technology
allows. It will be provided at the same wholesale price, no matter where the
premise is located.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>We are mindful that the costs are significant in serving these more remote
customers, and that no commercial company would find this an attractive market.
But we take very seriously the objective given to us by the Government, to
serve all Australians.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>We will also be providing connectivity for Retail Service Providers to
access an end user in a given region from the same Point of Interconnect, using
the same processes, from the same physical network interface and, as I have
said, at the same wholesale price.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>NBN Co is planning for the provision of Uniform National Pricing. That is
pricing which is distance and technology independent. We are currently working
with Government on the practical application of Uniform National Pricing which
is critical for lowering the barriers to entry for Retail Service Providers and
delivering effective national retail competition.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>This, in turn will drive increased levels of retail competition in rural and
regional Australia, lowering the cost of doing business for those living and
working in those areas.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I recently met with the representatives of the National Farmers' Federation
(NFF) and the NSW Farmers' Association. Who as you can see from the screen,
clearly supported our direction. We are doing everything we can to allow the
people living and working in the 7 percent of premises not covered in the
fibre footprint to be provided with the best possible telecom services.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Of course this doesn't come free. It means that the NBN Co business case
does not produce the commercial returns that a private investor would demand.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>That is why it is the Government that is funding this infrastructure build.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>It never ceases to amaze me that people who should know better, criticise the
NBN because it is not going to generate the sort of returns that private
investors would be seeking.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I wonder if Charles Todd's Overland Telegraph suffered the same criticisms.
If you recall it cost £480,000. But it was decades before the Overland Telegraph
generated a positive return on investment. Annual revenues from telegraph
traffic during the first decade of operation were only £12,000.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>This slide demonstrates the relative cost to the public purse across the
three major publicly funded fixed wire infrastructure rollouts. You can see
that NBN is very comparable.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'><img width=524 height=393
id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image002.jpg@01CB3F90.93A73340"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p>Warwick Smith who delivered this oration 15 years ago said these words about
Overland Telegraph: "...not enough to pay interest, maintenance and all
construction costs - but the incalculable value to the nation as a whole from
the undertaking, warranted the understanding of a community who saw the long
term value of the broader benefits and were not blinded by a necessity of
immediate return."<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>We, in NBN Co, are also not blinded by the necessity of immediate returns on
the public investment in the NBN. But we will be providing a long term return
and will be covering our costs relatively quickly.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Without factoring in any social, economic or productivity benefits that the
NBN will provide, the returns predicted by our business case will be very
acceptable to the Government.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Our business case requires equity funding by the Government of around $27
billion. This is not the total capital costs, as we expect to raise debt,
without Government guarantees, of at least $10 billion.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>The Telco and Finance professionals within NBN Co that have built this
business case are experienced business people who have been involved in running
some very large companies and know how to assess risk.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>It is also the case that the Heads of Agreement with Telstra both reduces
the total costs of the build and provides a level of assurance to the revenue
line.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>So far from
being a "white elephant" the NBN can provide an acceptable return for
the Government. Taxpayers will get their $27 billion investment back with
interest and they will get a network they can use for decades.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>This is, I
believe, a much better option for the Australian public than giving billions of
dollars of taxpayer funding to subsidise commercial companies to marginally
improve today's broadband networks.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>So what are the
risks for the public in financing the NBN?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>The first thing
I would note is that while the NBN has the same nation-building characteristics
as the Harbour Bridge or the Snowy Mountains scheme it does not have the same
risk of cost over-runs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Unlike these
projects, the NBN is a scalable network. It is composed of integrated pieces
which work together but which also work in their own right. There are four
major components:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<ul type=disc>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l1 level1 lfo2'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>the
satellite solution for 3% of premises which will provide much improved
broadband for more than 200k premises;<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l1 level1 lfo2'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>the
fixed wireless solution which will serve 4% of premises;<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l1 level1 lfo2'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>the
FTTP solution that serves 93% of premises; and,<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l1 level1 lfo2'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>the
transit backhaul network which connects the three access technologies to
the common Points of Interconnect.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ul>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>The satellite
and fixed wireless solutions are badly needed to dramatically improve the
services that can be provided to rural and remote communities. The transit
backhaul build is, I believe, supported by almost everyone in the industry as
being a good investment for the country.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>So the issue is
around the FTTP build. One of the concerns I hear is that the costs will blow
out.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>We have come in
on time and under budget on our first build in Tasmania and we have some
excellent benchmarks for similar builds in overseas markets.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Remember this is
a highly repeatable build of very similar modules as we rollout across the
country. The scope for applying continuous improvement methodologies to drive
down costs is huge.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>The Heads of
Agreement with Telstra also reduces uncertainty as we are able to use existing
underground ducts. We also expect to dramatically reduce our revenue risk with
the Telstra agreement to decommission the copper as our fibre network is rolled
out.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>The other
concern I hear is that our revenues are at risk because it will be at that
point that there will be a move to wireless on the assumption that wireless
will provide everyone's broadband needs. Overseas data simply doesn't support this
line of argument. You will recall I said earlier, that some of the biggest
Telcos in the world are investing in FTTP.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>So there are two
questions:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<ol start=1 type=1>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l2 level1 lfo3'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>What
is it that all these Telcos know about wireless that eludes some in
Australia?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l2 level1 lfo3'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Why
is it that you can't buy anything close to a 50 GByte per month plan on a
mobile network?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ol>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>It's all related
to the limitation of wireless as an access technology. So perhaps I should
spend a few minutes on the realities of access technologies.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>We have a few
options to provide broadband services to the premise:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<ol start=1 type=1>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l0 level1 lfo4'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Copper
using sophisticated Digital Signal Processing techniques embodied in DSL
technologies to get the last bit of performance out of the limited
bandwidth on copper ,<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l0 level1 lfo4'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Wireless
using various types of modulation and coding schemes to squeeze the most
out of the available spectrum,<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l0 level1 lfo4'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Coaxial
cable which has a much higher bandwidth than copper but is shared across
multiple users<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l0 level1 lfo4'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Satellite
technologies that use even more sophisticated coding and modulation
schemes to overcome the issues of getting a satisfactory signal to and
from a platform that is 36,000 km above the Earth, and<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l0 level1 lfo4'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Fibre.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ol>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Each of these
access technologies has its own characteristics with respect to bandwidth
(speed), distance dependence, symmetry, latency and coverage.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>The technology
options in Charles Todd's day or even in the days when the copper CAN was first
deployed were considerably simpler. The technology options available today make
network design choices quite complex. It is a fact that communications is the
field in which some of the most complex and sophisticated applications of
modern physics, mathematics and statistics are used. That's what makes it so
fascinating, but also so challenging.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>What are the
pros and cons of the various access technologies:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Copper:</span></b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'> with
copper-based DSL we have now reached about the limit of what can be done. It is
now a trade-off between distance and speed. We should show our venerable copper
plant a great deal of respect. It has served us well for decades and provided
us with more than we had any right to expect. It is now time to allow it to
gracefully retire.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Wireless:</span></b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'> we have a lot
to thank James Clerk Maxwell for. He unified the physics of electricity and
magnetism and predicted the propagation of electromagnetic waves on which
wireless systems are based. Mobile technologies will continue to improve and
mobile applications and devices will continue to proliferate. However, we need
to be realistic. Every cellular base station is fed by fibre - for a good
reason. Spectrum is a very scarce resource which is why, as I said earlier, you
cannot buy a mobile broadband plan that will provide a 50GByte/month download
capacity. Wireless speeds also depend on distance and load.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Coaxial cable:</span></b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'> a "souped
up" version of copper. A much higher bandwidth capability but because of
the design of HFC systems it has symmetry problems. While it can provide high
speeds it is not so good at providing symmetrical broadband services that you
need for, for example, two-way videoconferencing. It is also a shared medium so
it is load dependent. Of course you can continue to node split, in which case
you get closer to a fibre PON (Passive Optical Network) architecture.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Satellite: </span></b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>great for
broadcast coverage but needs careful engineering to ensure a good broadband
service can be supported. It suffers from latency issues since there is not
much we can do about the speed of light.<br>
and finally,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Fibre: </span></b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>is almost the
ideal transmission medium. The cable itself is cheap, very robust these days,
has negligible latency issues and has an incredible bandwidth capability. The
limitation in speed achievable in fibre-based systems are related to the rates
at which the electronics on either end of the fibre can switch. The information
carrying capacity of the fibre itself is almost unlimited.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p>So, is fibre likely to be superseded in the next few decades by some new
technology we have not yet even thought of? I don't think so.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>To suggest that we not build a fibre-based network in Australia now because
maybe some new, but not yet imagined, technology may turn up, displays a rather
naļve view about how science and technology progresses. It is like not
investing in rail because we think automobile technology will radically improve
sometime soon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>It is now time to say a few words about the benefits to Australia of a
ubiquitous and standardised broadband platform.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Recent studies have noted the substantial annual benefits that flow from
broadband in terms of GDP. One such study of a fibre access network estimated a
US$160 billion economic benefit over 4 years. This same study estimated an
annual increase in jobs of more than 210,000.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Productivity growth (labour, manufacturing and technology), national
competitiveness and innovation are all a function of access to affordable
broadband infrastructure.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Blending life between work and home is a modern reality and a key driver of
employee retention is workplace flexibility, especially for women. The benefits
to national income of boosting full-time female participation rank somewhere
above those of tax reform and below those of promoting competition policy. A
reasonably good ROI for broadband infrastructure.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Our society is both aging and living longer. Applications delivered over NBN
infrastructure will enable more Australians to live in their own homes longer,
with in-home monitoring and high definition video allowing the elderly to
communicate regularly with family and health professionals.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>In Korea, a country also facing challenges of an aging population,
"Silver Cities" have been built to cater specifically for elderly
residents with round-the-clock monitoring and embedded technology to improve
quality of life.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Providing Australia's homes with access to affordable broadband infrastructure
could lead to a substantial reduction in the number of elderly Australians
moving into low dependency aged care facilities. For children at home with
serious long term illnesses, high-speed broadband can allow the learning
experience to continue.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>In conclusion, I would like to say that I have much appreciated the
opportunity to share with you my views on the NBN.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>It is the first time to my knowledge that investment in broadband has become
such a significant issue in a national election campaign anywhere in the world.
It is, I suppose, an indicator of just how important broadband is becoming in
our lives.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>We at NBN Co are very conscious of the fact that we are, on behalf of our
Government shareholders, investing a very large sum of money. It's proper therefore
that this nation-building proposal be subjected to the tough questions and to a
very rigorous public debate.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I'm sure that was the case when the Overland Telegraph and the Copper Access
Network were proposed. They would have had their doubters and skeptics and I'm
sure Charles Todd had to - from time to time - defend the Overland Telegraph.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>However like all debates, this one is best conducted with the benefit of a
few facts. And that is what I have sought to do today - place on the record the
facts which are driving NBN Co to the positions we are taking.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I'm sure Charles Todd would approve.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#002060'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>...Skeeve<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#002060'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#002060'>--<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#002060'>Skeeve Stevens,
CEO/Technical Director<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#002060'>eintellego Pty
Ltd - The Networking Specialists<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#002060'>skeeve@eintellego.net
/ www.eintellego.net<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#002060'>Phone: 1300 753
383, Fax: (+612) 8572 9954<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#002060'>Cell +61 (0)414
753 383 / skype://skeeve<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#002060'>www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve
; facebook.com/eintellego<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#002060'>--<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#002060'>NOC, NOC, who's
there?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#002060'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:8.0pt;color:#002060'>Disclaimer:
Limits of Liability and Disclaimer: This message is for the named person's use
only. It may contain sensitive and private proprietary or legally privileged
information. You must not, directly or indirectly, use, disclose, distribute,
print, or copy any part of this message if you are not the intended recipient.
eintellego Pty Ltd and each legal entity in the Tefilah Pty Ltd group of
companies reserve the right to monitor all e-mail communications through its
networks. Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual
sender, except where the message states otherwise and the sender is authorised
to state them to be the views of any such entity. Any reference to costs, fee
quotations, contractual transactions and variations to contract terms is
subject to separate confirmation in writing signed by an authorised
representative of eintellego. Whilst all efforts are made to safeguard inbound
and outbound e-mails, we cannot guarantee that attachments are virus-free or
compatible with your systems and do not accept any liability in respect of
viruses or computer problems experienced.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
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