<html><body bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><div>Don't get mr wring Tim. I understand that you feel there are others that lack what we have and I also understand your concerns about the money being spent. But it seems like your happy to patch up the areas that need help and then play the " wait n see" game with rest of the country. As noble as that Is for the less fortunate... This isn't something we can wait n see on. We've been doing that for over 2 decades and it's wearing thin. We already have a pretty good idea of where we are at and anyone can take an educated guess on where our telecomms future is headed based by the cards on the table. I don't think it's wrong to want to take advantage and even a risk at future-proofing. Granted, the hand we've been shown is a little rich (1Gbps ... Unlimited quota??). All I really want is a reliable infrastructure at competitive rates. Speed is sqwat to mr).<br><br><div>Sent from my iPhone</div><div>-------------</div><div>Andrew Oskam</div></div><div><br>On 13/08/2010, at 5:19 PM, "Tim McCullagh" <<a href="mailto:technical@halenet.com.au">technical@halenet.com.au</a>> wrote:<br><br></div><div></div><blockquote type="cite"><div>
<div>
<div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="WORD-SPACING: 0px; FONT: medium Helvetica; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; LETTER-SPACING: normal; BORDER-COLLAPSE: separate; orphans: 2; widows: 2; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">-----
Original Message -----</span></div></div>
<blockquote dir="ltr" style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div style="WORD-WRAP: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space" bgcolor="#ffffff">
<blockquote dir="ltr" style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: rgb(0,0,0) 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; POSITION: static">
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(228,228,228); background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial"><b>From:</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a title="mmc@internode.com.au" href="mailto:mmc@internode.com.au">Matthew Moyle-Croft</a></div>
<div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div>According to Quigley in Commsday today:</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>
<div style="MARGIN: 0px; FONT: 11px Times">"NBN Co CEO Mike Quigley also
told media that the project in Tasmania had come in at between 5- 10
percent under budget, with the total budget of the project reportedly
around A$37 million."</div></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font><br></div>
<div>That, for a fairly small set of builds (5000 houses in 3 sites) .
</div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Ok lets take those figures. $37
million / 5000 = $7400 per home passed</strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Now take it that only 50% have taken
up connection to it means $14800 if all of the 50% take it up which
is unlikely</strong></font></div></div></blockquote></div></blockquote>
<div>If the Telstra CAN is decommissioned then you expect take up to be
50%?</div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>So are you saying the government should
reduce competition. Now we are getting into a serious socialist
mentality. </strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>That aside it will depend on the
price. Telstra fixed lines demand is falling and is being substituted by
mobiles due to lower cost and mobility reasons.</strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Yes given the price the NBN will have to
charge eventually I can see customers electing to substitute fixed with
mobile. It is already happening. I am seeing people move from fixed to
mobile due to the cost. As a result 50% may end up being the
take up. If as a business you offered to give someone a free
connection no strings attached so that they could be connected and only
50% took it up I would reasonably expect that the other 50% didn't want what
you were offering. Perhaps that is telling you
something</strong> </font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Do you think that, as I said above, it was for a small build, that
it's actually going to be the same cost for the whole thing?</div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Being run by the government
Absolutely</strong></font></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>I'd also ask -> you claim you were going to roll this out yourself in
a brownfield? Why do you object to others doing so? </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>I don't I welcome it but do it with their
own money. Base it on a business plan and go for
it</strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div>Or is this another "well, it's only good if it's me doing it
thing"?</div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font></div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Please you must have a better argument
than that see my comment above</strong></font>
<div><br></div><br>
<blockquote type="cite"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="WORD-SPACING: 0px; FONT: medium Helvetica; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; LETTER-SPACING: normal; BORDER-COLLAPSE: separate; orphans: 2; widows: 2; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">
<div style="WORD-WRAP: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space" bgcolor="#ffffff">
<blockquote dir="ltr" style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: rgb(0,0,0) 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; POSITION: static">
<div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong></strong></font> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Now lets say that we want to get a 6%
return as per conroys undertaking, assuming the 50% takeup over 40 years
(not likely but I will humour those that talk this
crap)</strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong></strong></font> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>This equals a loan payment of $81.43
before GST and opex costs per month on a 12 payment a year basis for NBN
to just pay back the cost of their NBN build over 40 years. I
can see customers signing up for 40 year contracts NOT. And we need
to remember this is all borrowed money. Even if we did it on an
interest only basis we would need to repay $31 per month excluding gst
opex and data charges. As I understand it most lenders also what
their money back at some point.</strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong></strong></font> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>So what do you recon should be the
charge to the RSP's and what do you recon will be the charge that has to
be passed onto the customer including GST?</strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Then do "ALL" customers have the
ability to pay that?</strong> </font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Now tell me I am wrong and back it up
with your
figures.</strong></font></div></div></blockquote></div></span></blockquote>
<div><br></div>
<div>I disagree with the underlying cost assumptions, you seem to be the most
pessimistic, so you get the absolute worst case,.</div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>I gave a best case repayment on an
interest only loan and a payment based on Conroys 6% return (unrealistic) so
how can that be pessimistic?</strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Be specific, you keep demanding I put up
or shutup, do the same. </strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>What assumptions do you disagree with or
is your argument lost for words. I have used your figures take up rates
and a loan calculator to calculate the repayments. Remember this is
borrowed money and needs to be repaid with interest.</strong></font><br></div>
<div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="WORD-SPACING: 0px; FONT: medium Helvetica; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; LETTER-SPACING: normal; BORDER-COLLAPSE: separate; orphans: 2; widows: 2; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </span></div>
<div>Again, the deal on the table is to decommission Telstra Cu. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>At a the cost of reducing
competition. I suspect many will move to mobile solutions as a
fixed line replacement. In fact I am seeing that
now</strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Stuff goes up. Wah. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Tell that to the pensioners, those on the
average wage paying off mortages and struggling to survive that make up a
large percentage of the population. You and I are not in that boat, but
I talk to those people all the time. They tell me their budget is $30 to
$50 no more end of story. NBN will cost more than
that</strong></font></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>You've taken a small, first trial site and extrapolated only worse case.
</div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Rubbish please explain how I have done
that and back it up with facts.</strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div> The NBNCo have done a fair bit of modeling to show it's a much
better case than that. I know you'll just go "I don't believe it", but
hey, some people do know what they're doing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Yes, and some have done it. I
know the pricing of installing duct cable splicing etc etc and I to have
modelled it. I am confident in my model and any reduction in NBNco
equipment pricing will be more than substituted by my lower labour
costs. NBNco modelling if it is so, why don't they announce
their pricing for the next 5 years and subject it to scrutiny. Because
it doesn't stack up. They will come in with a cheap price and it will
rise above CPI every year for years to come as opposed to the reductions in
real prices using copper.</strong></font></div>
<div><strong><font face="Arial" size="2"></font></strong> </div>
<div><strong><font face="Arial" size="2">I don't care who provides my services as
long as they are affordable. I remember the PMG days the early Telecom
days and the Telstra days. Government monopolies are always loose with
their money and rarely if ever get value for money. BER is a case in
point to back up my arguement. Please back up
yours.</font></strong></div>
<div><strong><font face="Arial" size="2"></font></strong> </div>
<div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="WORD-SPACING: 0px; FONT: medium Helvetica; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; LETTER-SPACING: normal; BORDER-COLLAPSE: separate; orphans: 2; widows: 2; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><strong><font face="Arial" size="2"> </font></strong></span></div>
<div>How many can't even get ADSL2 or ADSL1? </div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Yes and as I have stated repeatedly
that is where the focus should be, but isn't. The focus is on over
building 2 cable networks an adsl network and where 3 or more
mobile networks exist and removing the competition of the 2 cable networks and
the adsl network by closing them down. Please catch
up</strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font><br></div>
<div>You keep whining but offer NO alternate plan other than to do nothing.
</div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Rubbish. I believe the
telco sector has to be either fully privately owned or fully publically
owned. When it was publically owned there was higher prices and lower
service so private ownership is more desirable. In areas where the
market fails to deliver, governments should call tenders to fix the issues and
so on. I don't believe we should reduce competition, but in the
same way I don't believe that the competition should be distorted by
government programs. I also recognise that governments are like you and
I and have limited resources and should only spend what is necessary and that
it should be in an efficient manner. NBNco doesn't fit that. There
are many more deserving projects like water to guarantee Australias food
production capabilities and to provide the water necessary like Adelaide so
that those regions can feed and water themselves. There is a need for
very fast trains to take the pressure of the larger cities, there is a need
for the inland railway to get trucks off the road and to ensure that
Australian ports can achieve there proper capacity and so we can earn foreign
income so we can buy fancy new comms equipment etc etc. But the bottom
line is Governments are like you and I and have limited
resources</strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div> Lots of people want better and that's right now, let alone in
10,20,30,40 years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Define lots and how much are they
prepared to pay?</strong></font></div>
<div><strong><font face="Arial" size="2">only 50% took up the NBN free offer
in Tassie so lots may not be the majority after all. That is me
backing up my statement with facts. How many of those 50% would have
paid to take it up? So how important was it really</font></strong></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="WORD-SPACING: 0px; FONT: medium Helvetica; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; LETTER-SPACING: normal; BORDER-COLLAPSE: separate; orphans: 2; widows: 2; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </span></div>
<div>Really? Where have you been?</div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Providing solutions where adsl doesn't
exist with my own money. where have you been?</strong></font></div>
<div><br></div>
<blockquote type="cite"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="WORD-SPACING: 0px; FONT: medium Helvetica; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; LETTER-SPACING: normal; BORDER-COLLAPSE: separate; orphans: 2; widows: 2; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">
<div style="WORD-WRAP: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space" bgcolor="#ffffff">
<blockquote dir="ltr" style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: rgb(0,0,0) 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; POSITION: static">
<div>
<div><strong><font face="Arial" size="2">Some on this list should go and sit
on a 512/128 sat service for a month with low download limits
and high excess charges, then you would have an appreciation of how good
your current solutions are. Some also need to realise that much of
the wealth of this country originates from the regions. Without the
regions the standard of living in the cities would be nothing like it
is. We can compared ourselves with Japan korea etc, but that
is stupid as well, look at the population desnities and land mass,
or tell me you want to live in a large appartment block like caged
chickens. I think not. Our lifestyle comes at a cost and
higher comms costs is part of that due to the amount of investment per
customer
required.</font></strong></div></div></blockquote></div></span></blockquote>
<div>So, your arguing that doing better broadband in regional areas is a good
or bad thing? Not clear Tim.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>I would have thought you would have been
able to work out that in regional areas were you don't have any other option
than an expensive crap sat service, that is where the focus should be
until there is at least choice in regional areas before we go and
spend $43 billion increasing city speed from 8 to 20 Mbps to 100 Mbps or
more. But I think you know that . I have stated it at
least 10 times now. Show me other than in your ABG areas where that is
currently happening.</strong> </font></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Better Satellite, better wireless coverage, a fair bit of regional fibre
and I'll bet it's not something that stops in 8 years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Better satellite yeh right. Are you
kidding. Residential Sat has latency that makes many applications
not worth using. And what year is that new satellite going ot be
launched by NBN. Why does NBN need to launch there own when there are a
number of operators that can fill that space sooner? Should I go on
nah</strong></font></div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font></blockquote>
<blockquote dir="ltr" style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Better wireless by NBN
when</strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>regional fibre
when</strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong></strong></font> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>A couple of quensland test sites for
fibre 1 in Toowoomba 1 in Townsville hardly places that don't have options
now</strong></font></div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've been around a long time too. I keep looking to the future
with knowing what's happened. I had a 2400bps modem once, I'm glad
things keep getting better rather than just going "well that's it".</div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>No one is saying anythink about not
improving. It is about spending $43 billion to overbuild perfectly
servicable ADSL and cable newtworks with borrowed money, no business case etc
and going back wards 30 years to the PMG days with reduced
competition</strong></font></div>
<div><br></div>
<blockquote type="cite"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="WORD-SPACING: 0px; FONT: medium Helvetica; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; LETTER-SPACING: normal; BORDER-COLLAPSE: separate; orphans: 2; widows: 2; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">
<div style="WORD-WRAP: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space" bgcolor="#ffffff">
<blockquote dir="ltr" style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: rgb(0,0,0) 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; POSITION: static">
<div>
<div><strong><font face="Arial" size="2"></font></strong> </div></div></blockquote></div></span></blockquote>
<div><br></div>
<div>See my earlier posts regarding what $43b represents. I'd argue that
spending a similar amount on some more submarines and a few fighter planes
(piloted planes now? Really) over the same time period is going to add far
less to the economy than an NBN.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>So your saying defence doesn't matter
just goes to show you don't know what they do, get a
grip</strong></font></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>But hey, let's all get scared of a big boogey man number and not do
anything.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>You are being silly should I state it
again. That is not what is being said</strong></font></div>
<div> </div>
<div>And yet you STILL OFFER NO LONGER TERM ALTERNATIVE.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Rubbish</strong></font></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>No one has that objects to the NBN. No one has articulated a plan
as to how not doing NBN now is going to be better over the long term, over the
next 10,20,30,40 years.</div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>That is not the case and if you have a
crystal ball that you can see what willbe needed in 10 20 30 or 40 years then
I am sure we would all like to have a look at it. To take that line of
thinking from a different perspective are you saying that you should buy a new
car today becasue you have a flat tyre and you never know you may need a new
cat in 10 20 30 or 40 years. I know that is silly but so is the
statement it is replying to.</strong></font></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>NBN has a concrete future, not doing it seems to be wishful, hopeful
thinking that something "might happen" in the future if we do nothing
now.</div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font></blockquote>
<blockquote dir="ltr" style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Something will happen, there will be
incremetal improvements the same as there has since the dial days and those
will address customers needs. To say otherwise is being
silly. NBN is just one way to get there without considering all the
others. Blinker type stuff. </strong></font></div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font></blockquote>
<blockquote dir="ltr" style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font><br></div>
<div>This is what's really frustrating. A lot of people whining that
"well, we don't want to spend a lot of money now, because, well, it's not me
doing it and governents shouldn't do it because, well, I'm happy with what
i've got now" and offering no future long term solution.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Rubbish you keep using the same argument
without any basis to it.</strong></font></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>No solutions for even 10 years time. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Do you buy your new car now that you
think you will need in 10 years time? No. so why do you want to buy
your network infrastructure now when you don't know what you will need in 10
years time</strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div> No actual changes to the regulatory environment, nothing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>I don't see you putting anything forward
just rehashing the same crap</strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font><br></div>
<div>It's hard to take the "do a temporary patch job now" concept seriously
when it's not combined with long term vision of what we'll need.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>How many ways do I have to state that
that is not what is being proposed</strong></font></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>You say you've been around a long time in this industry, are you
seriously saying that we've reached the end and we should not move forward?
</div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>More broken record</strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font> </div>
<div>What about your kids/grandkids will need? </div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font></blockquote>
<blockquote dir="ltr" style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Who know what they will need. Give me a look
at that crystal ball you have</strong></font>
<div><br></div>
<div>We should be taking on these big projects to improve the future.
Imagine what'd happened if someone said "Snowy River project, too
expensive, no point, we can do something later". </div>
<div> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>There was a need for the snowy project
and there was no other option that met the needs at the time, that is why it
was done. </strong></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"></font><br></div>
<div><strong>regards</strong></div>
<div><strong></strong> </div>
<div><font face="Arial" size="2"><strong>Tim</strong></font></div></blockquote>
</div></blockquote><blockquote type="cite"><div><span>_______________________________________________</span><br><span>AusNOG mailing list</span><br><span><a href="mailto:AusNOG@lists.ausnog.net">AusNOG@lists.ausnog.net</a></span><br><span><a href="http://lists.ausnog.net/mailman/listinfo/ausnog">http://lists.ausnog.net/mailman/listinfo/ausnog</a></span><br></div></blockquote></body></html>