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<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Well I am very glad you wrote that
because I can demonstrate how it is not only not applicable to the topic at
hand, but it also demonstrate very poor business planning as well.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>The anology below is flawed because
you are assumming everyone needs to pull the cart with ever increasing loads
which is not the case. Your analogy is like saying everyone in the subrban
street needs a mini bus because one family in the street had 7 children.
That is clearly not the case with broadband. Some in the street may have a
pony and some may have a push bike. Some may require an always on
connection with speed not important, whereas others may require
speed.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>On the issue of financial viability
and business planning, the local taxi company doesn't purchase minibuses to pick
up all their fares. They have some mini buses and some commodores and
falcons, because some customers want something different and it is more
economical to increase their demand by having different choices and minimising
costs by deploying more efficient vehicles for different tasks. This is
the same choice that customers will make to. Many of these customers are
non technical people that want to access email and a small amount of web surfing
and perhaps a little voip. What suits them best is generally what suits
their budget. With mobility becoming ever more important to some
customers, then some are substituting their mobile products as fixed line
replacements.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>I guess the debate has come down to
the differences in perspective from those that sign the front of the cheques and
those that sign the backs. More importantly those that sign the backs of
the cheques have not been told how much they are going to have to put on the
front of the cheques they sign to have access. It is at this point that
some will be informed enough to make a choice and will then be in the front
of the cheque category at which time their financial ability to pay will
influence the decission (reality will set in). For some of us we may not
balk at $100 or more per month, but we are not the majority and our demand will
not make NBN economical. The whole business case comes down to
takeup. The more capital that is spent the higher will be the monthly
charges necessary to gain the required return. The same applies to
takeup. The larger the takeup the cheaper it will be to get the
return. The issue then becomes how to maximise takeup. At present
there are a number of alternatives like ADSL, mobile wireless, fixed wireless
etc. Even tough the question has been asked many times I have never seen
an answer to the question "what percentage of ADSL customers are asking for the
highest speed as their demand priority?" or is it that people sign up to
plans they can afford. This will very much determine the take up.
Many want the fastest speeds but when it comes to capacity to pay choose other
plans. There is not a snow flakes chance in hell that the NBN pricing once
the political games are played out will be cheaper than the current ADSL
offerings. It is a major investment and will require a higher price
to pay for it. The danger with NBN is that many won't have the
ability to pay which will drive more onto the mobile wireless networks and
degrade the quality of service on mobile wireless networks. Some much for
providing solutions for the future. NBN risks driving demand from the
current fixed networks to the mobile networks making even incremental upgrades
uneconomic in the fixed network. The trend of fixed to mobile
substitution has been happening for some time.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Tim</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=pbrooks-ausnog@layer10.com.au
href="mailto:pbrooks-ausnog@layer10.com.au">Paul Brooks</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=ausnog@lists.ausnog.net
href="mailto:ausnog@lists.ausnog.net">ausnog@lists.ausnog.net</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, August 16, 2010 2:19
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [AusNOG] Flogging a dead horse
(was Re: NBN: "i want a pony! but can I afford it"</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>I want a Clydesdale, not a pony.<BR><BR>For many many years my
faithful pony has served me well, pulled my little milkcart, and when the
workday is done she happily provided pony rides for each of my children. How
happy they were, queuing up to take their turn for a fast trot around the
meadow, pretending to be light-horsemen with all the other children on their
ponies. I remember when I first bought dear Copper, she was so sprightly and
quick, especially when compared to the old days when I used to have to pull
the barrow myself.<BR><BR>But as the years have passed my milk business has
grown, and my cart has grown heavier and heavier as I try to do more,
and ask my faithful Copper to step up to the increased load. My workday has
got longer, and encroached on the time my children want to have fun - and they
have also grown heavier as well over the years. I've seen others in my
predicament harness two, four, even six ponies together side-by-side to pull
the heavier loads they have been fortunate enough to grow to need - and this
works for a while, but there is a limit to how many can work together.
<BR><BR>Now my poor Copper is lying on her side, panting, willing but unable
to pull my double-decker milk-trailer - and when she does manage to get it
going forwards, she certainly can't get it moving in reverse, and she has
always struggled in the hilly areas out of town where she can only go very
slowly, and some roads are so long or steep she can't go there at all, and I
can't sell my milk to the people living there - nor can they get a pony of
their own.<BR><BR>Now I know I can spend about $6k on a visit from the vet -
he can give her some injections, bandage her knees, keep her on her feet - but
I know that I'll just have to do the same bandaid measures in a few years
time, and even then she'll never be able to pull the cart any faster, or cover
a wider territory than she's already doing. I could invest in some more ponies
and harness them together like others have - but while I know they can pull
more, six ponies don't move any more quickly down the road than one
does, and still can't go up long steep hills, let alone reverse back down
them.<BR><BR>The other day I saw a Clydesdale - a hulking great beast that can
effortlessly pull huge loads - certainly it will pull my new cart, with a lot
of capacity for my milk business to grow, pulling multiple milk-trailers in a
roadtrain. It can take on the hilly areas out of town without even slowing
down or losing breath - and it can pull a haycart at the same time, big enough
for not just one child, but the whole family to ride on and have fun at the
same time, and the neighbours too. Its almost as easy for it to go backwards
as forwards, which opens up new possibilities.<BR><BR>Unfortunately a
Clydesdale is fairly expensive - $43k someone has estimated - but after that
they are relatively cheap to keep fed and watered, especially compared to the
constant vet bills and ongoing costs for poor dear Copper. Some people can't
work out why I would want to spend that sort of money on a horse - but they
are generally the ones that live on the flat, where their little ponies can
run faster than here.<BR>Over time, the constant outgoings to keep the pony
going will surely be more expensive than the purchase cost of the Clydesdale -
but I can't find anyone who can help me work out the ongoing maintenance
costs, everyone seems to be fixated on the purchase price and nothing else.
I'm not sure if I should spend a bit more now, and get a bit more, or spend
more over time flogging a horse already at its limit.<BR><BR>P.<BR>
<P>
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