<div class="gmail_quote">On 13 August 2010 15:19, Tim McCullagh <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:technical@halenet.com.au">technical@halenet.com.au</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex;">
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<div style="font: 10pt arial; background-color: rgb(228, 228, 228);"><b>From:</b><span> </span><a title="mmc@internode.com.au" href="mailto:mmc@internode.com.au" target="_blank">Matthew Moyle-Croft</a></div>
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<div>Again, the deal on the table is to decommission Telstra Cu. </div>
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</div><div><font face="Arial" size="2"><b>At a the cost of reducing
competition. I suspect many will move to mobile solutions as a
fixed line replacement. In fact I am seeing that
now</b></font></div>
<div> <br><br></div></blockquote></div></blockquote><div>Where does your assumption, that replacing Telstra's copper with NBNCo fibre reduces competition, come from?<br>
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In the current model, an ISP has three options:<br>
1) Buy a DSLAM / Phone port off a wholesale provider.<br>
2) Install their own equipment (DSLAM / Voice gear) in the exchange.<br>
3) Don't provide a service.<br>
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Realistically, only the larger companies (iiNet, Internode, Optus, etc)
can go with the second option - there's a pretty big cost barrier to
entry for new ISPs to put in DSLAMs. Also, the copper provider gets a
monthly fee for the copper and also the colo costs of having the
equipment in the exchanges.<br>
<br>
Option 1) is doable, but you're subject to the wholesale rate, plus you have to pay for the network connection to the wholesale provider, and you
don't get the same discount as the wholesale provider gives their own
retail arm, so you're at a cost disadvantage to start with.<br>
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Both of these serve to limit competition.<br>
<br>
Assuming an NBNCo world, everyone is on the same field, purchasing
services at the same costs, and able to differentiate on all the other
aspects.<br>
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Where do you see that providing less competition?<br> <br><br>There's also an assumption above that the trend towards mobile internet will continue.<br><br>Given what's available with ADSL at the moment (coverage, line quality, speeds, etc), it's not surprising that mobile Internet can be a more attractive option - in the home it's compensating for a lack of other options. If you compare mobile Internet to dedicated fibre (instead of current ADSL), the balance may swing back the other way. Additionally, the widespread availability of high speeds may lead to a change in the
pattern of applications, and swing things back to fibre (IPTV, video
conferencing, the next big bandwidth intensive app, etc). I'm not saying it will have that affect, but
it can't be ruled out.<br><br><br>Add into the mixing pot the ability to run multiple services over the fibre. At the moment, you can get DSL from one provide and phone from another, over your copper pair. With fibre in a wholesale model, there's no reason you can't add in TV from a third provider, a dedicated work VPN from a fourth, perhaps a school WAN interconnect from a fifth, etc. As long as the incentive is there for the wholesaler to sell as many different services on the link.<br>
<br>All up, fibre seems a lot more future proof than wireless - as long as the monopoly is controlled in a way where it can only wholesale, not retail, to provide a mechanism for competition.<br>
</div><br>prk.<br></div><br><div style="visibility: hidden; display: inline;" id="avg_ls_inline_popup"></div><style type="text/css">#avg_ls_inline_popup { position:absolute; z-index:9999; padding: 0px 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; width: 240px; overflow: hidden; word-wrap: break-word; color: black; font-size: 10px; text-align: left; line-height: 13px;}</style>