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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>-----
Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=mmc@internode.com.au href="mailto:mmc@internode.com.au">Matthew
Moyle-Croft</A> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>According to Quigley in Commsday today:</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV style="MARGIN: 0px; FONT: 11px Times">"NBN Co CEO Mike Quigley also told
media that the project in Tasmania had come in at between 5- 10 percent under
budget, with the total budget of the project reportedly around A$37
million."</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV>That, for a fairly small set of builds (5000 houses in 3 sites) .
</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>Ok lets take those figures. $37
million / 5000 = $7400 per home passed</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>Now take it that only 50% have taken up
connection to it means $14800 if all of the 50% take it up which is
unlikely</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG></STRONG></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>Now lets say that we want to get a 6%
return as per conroys undertaking, assuming the 50% takeup over 40 years (not
likely but I will humour those that talk this crap)</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG></STRONG></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>This equals a loan payment of $81.43
before GST and opex costs per month on a 12 payment a year basis for NBN to
just pay back the cost of their NBN build over 40 years. I can see
customers signing up for 40 year contracts NOT. And we need to remember
this is all borrowed money. Even if we did it on an interest only basis
we would need to repay $31 per month excluding gst opex and data
charges. As I understand it most lenders also what their money back at
some point. </STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG></STRONG></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>So what do you recon should be the charge
to the RSP's and what do you recon will be the charge that has to be passed
onto the customer including GST?</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>Then do "ALL" customers have the ability
to pay that?</STRONG> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>Now tell me I am wrong and back it up
with your figures.</STRONG></FONT></DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>with obvious fixed costs which would be amortised over more houses in a
larger set of builds</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>I think you are selectively adding
costs. NBNco has had far more than $37 million in funding and all that
additional funding needs to be paid back to in the scheme of things which will
make the fiigures above look worse again</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>It's only just been launched so the take up rate is a bit moot at the
moment.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>I grant that, but under an
earlier tassy trial they got 17% takeup which was reportedly almost
free, The western Australian power company who's name escapes me
at present closed their ftth brownfield network down because they couldn't get
enough take up. So what take up do you recon NBNco will get
out of the 50%. I will recalc the figures above for you, but the figures
will only get worse.</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>I am happy to be proved wrong here, but I
doubt I will be unfortunately, which brings me back to my early question,
</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>What makes people think that this lunacy
will not result in much higher comms costs to ALL Australians in the same way
as all other government utilites have like power water and rates??????
Please answer</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>This is not an argument about doing
nothing. It is an argument about doing what all Australians need and can
afford. </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>On the question of need, how many
customers are on the max ADSL1 or ADSL2 speeds now? What is the real
demand now? </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>The current focus is on ftth is the areas
where there are currently many competing solutions, while areas that have
nothing are not even being discussed. Some on this list should go and
sit on a 512/128 sat service for a month with low download limits
and high excess charges, then you would have an appreciation of how good your
current solutions are. Some also need to realise that much of the wealth
of this country originates from the regions. Without the regions the
standard of living in the cities would be nothing like it is. We
can compared ourselves with Japan korea etc, but that is stupid as well,
look at the population desnities and land mass, or tell me you want to live in
a large appartment block like caged chickens. I think not.
Our lifestyle comes at a cost and higher comms costs is part of that due to
the amount of investment per customer required.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>I have been around since the BBS days and
seen many changes, not all of the changes were clear 2 years before they
happened. In the dial days you had only dial as an access methed.
Today we have mobile wireless wifi fixed dsl fixed wireless and so on all
competing for a share of the market, which one is supreme only time will tell
and I suspect will depend on whether it is business or residential use and
which part of the demographic consumers fit into.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>On the question of affordability how much
can all australians afford per month. I am seeing customers move to
mobile services, speed is not their priority. Cost and mobility
are. Which brings us back to what percentage of customers are really
demanding a fast fixed service and what sort of take up should NBN co
expect? Telstra has lost a reasonable slice of their fixed phone
market and it is accelerating, perhaps we can expect to and are seeing that
with fixed broadband being substituted by mobile broadband now. Is
spending $43 billion on a ftth network more justified than other equally
justifiable projects like inland rail, bradfield scheme on water, very fast
trains etc etc. Funding is finite and should be directed at the
solutions that meet the needs of all australians. I saw a dumb anology
somewhere about not building hospitals in regional areas because we don't all
need them there. I can asure you every australian will visit a hospital
at some time in their lifetime and some will be very glad there was a hospital
available when they need it regardless of where they are, on the other hand
some Australians will never use the NBN. That is not to say they won't
use the internet, they may just access it via mobile or other methods.
It comes down to priorities. Lets take a straw pole in the community and
ask how many would sign up for NBN at$100 per month because realistically that
will be the minimum they will pay at some stage after all the suck me in
pricing is abandoned in the same way as it was in water, electricity and
rates.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>My apologies for the long response but
some things need to be said to put some balance into the
discussion</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>regards</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial
size=2>Tim</FONT></STRONG></DIV></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>