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<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>RE: [AusNOG] background radiation was: "i want a pony!" (was Re:Long live the NBN. The NBN is dead?! [personal])</TITLE>
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I agree 1000000000% with every word
Curtis</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Well said</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I really think a lot of people need to sit
down and add up the costs of building an NBN. Not that many would
have any idea of the costs. I have been told that tas nbn cost $300 million for
4000 homes past with less than 50% taking up a "free connection" with less
than 100 connected. If this is correect it tells me it is a financial
disaster in the making.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Then they need to sit down and honestly consider
how much of the population wants higher speed iptv etc NOW. NBN tas
50% take up of a free connection, not to be connected just to have the
provisioning done for later on.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Then we need to be told what the pricing of the NBN
will be. So far NBN tas is basically free to the providers. That
won't and can't last</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>After we have the above info we can continue
the discussion, otherwise we are all wasting our time and in the future out
comms costs will rise substantially. There is no doubt about that.
To believe otherwise is foolish given that an adsl port provisioned costs $150
per port and a ftth port will cost $3500 to 7500. At the end of the day
someone has TO PAY and that will be the consumers. Is it fair of the few
to expect all users to have to pay more to achieve the same result so taht the
can have the wow factor?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Tim</FONT></DIV>
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style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=curtis@bayne.com.au href="mailto:curtis@bayne.com.au">Curtis
Bayne</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=percy@th3interw3bs.net
href="mailto:percy@th3interw3bs.net">Andrew Oskam</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Cc:</B> <A title=ausnog@ausnog.net
href="mailto:ausnog@ausnog.net">ausnog@ausnog.net</A> ; <A
title=TomSykes@nbnco.com.au href="mailto:TomSykes@nbnco.com.au">Tom Sykes</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, August 12, 2010 2:09
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [AusNOG] background
radiation was: "i want a pony!" (wasRe:Long live the NBN. The NBN is dead?!
[personal])</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><!-- Converted from text/plain format -->
<P><FONT size=2>...and the market adapts to these technology changes as demand
increases.<BR><BR>Point in hand: there are many businesses which REQUIRE high
speed connectivity as a part of their business. That's why Optus, PowerTel,
NextGen, Primus, Digital River, UEcomm, Telstra, PIPE, AAPT, Verizon/WorldCom
etc. all have optical rings around most east-coast CBDs and people like
Polyfone, BigAir, Allegro etc. build competitive fixed-wireless alternatives
to reach where these rings do not.<BR><BR>100Mbps/100Mbps is available in any
major city, where the highest density of users who require it are, and usually
less than $3k/month.<BR><BR>If your business has a genuine requirement for
high speed connectivity, then you build the cost of acquiring that service
into your business model and pricing structure. That's how a free market
economy works.<BR><BR>I do not deny that we need to focus on regional
telecommunications, but I firmly believe that the NBN is not the answer. The
government can build regional backhaul networks and let ISPs deliver the local
loop (via FTTP, WLL, copper, whatever is most effective). The market will set
demand, the regional blackspot issues resolved and we've spent a hell of a lot
less than a metro FTTP network which duplicates what's already covered by
1xCopper, 2xHFC, 4xMobile and countless fixed wireless
providers.<BR><BR>-----Original Message-----<BR>From: Andrew Oskam [<A
href="mailto:percy@th3interw3bs.net">mailto:percy@th3interw3bs.net</A>]<BR>Sent:
Thu 8/12/2010 1:37 PM<BR>To: Curtis Bayne<BR>Cc: Daniel Hood; Tom Sykes;
ausnog@ausnog.net<BR>Subject: Re: [AusNOG] background radiation was: "i want a
pony!" (was Re:Long live the NBN. The NBN is dead?! [personal])<BR><BR>What if
something better than Citrix comes along in 10-20 years time?<BR><BR>Things
change. Technology eventually becomes redundant.<BR><BR><BR>Andrew
Oskam<BR>E percy@th3interw3bs.net<BR><BR>NOTICE:<BR>These comments are
my own personal opinions only and do not necessarily reflect the positions or
opinions of my employer or their affiliates. All comments are based upon my
current knowledge and my own personal experiences. You should conduct
independent tests to verify the validity of any statements made in this email
before basing any decisions upon those statements.<BR><BR><BR><BR>On
12/08/2010, at 10:43 AM, Curtis Bayne wrote:<BR><BR>Beyond 1Mbps and with
appropriate latency a Citrix session is indistinguishable from a local
host.<BR><BR>There are many regional mining companies with 4Mbps/4Mbps ATM
circuits from Telstra with 100-400 thin clients hanging off the end who have
great success.<BR><BR>A 1.5Mbps DSL circuit is perfectly suitable for
teleworking.<BR><BR>-----Original Message-----<BR>From: Daniel Hood [<A
href="mailto:dsmhood@gmail.com">mailto:dsmhood@gmail.com</A>]<BR>Sent: Thu
8/12/2010 10:11 AM<BR>To: Curtis Bayne<BR>Cc: Andrew Oskam; Tom Sykes;
ausnog@ausnog.net<BR>Subject: Re: [AusNOG] background radiation was: "i want a
pony!" (was Re:Long live the NBN. The NBN is dead?! [personal])<BR><BR>Fine
and at normal speed are two very different things.<BR><BR>On Thu, Aug 12, 2010
at 10:06 AM, Curtis Bayne <curtis@bayne.com.au> wrote:<BR>> Citrix
runs perfectly fine under 512Kbps, ensuring latency is less than<BR>> 100ms
end-to-end.<BR>><BR>> I used to do this over VodafoneAU GPRS many moons
ago...<BR>><BR>><BR>> -----Original Message-----<BR>> From:
ausnog-bounces@lists.ausnog.net on behalf of Daniel Hood<BR>> Sent: Thu
8/12/2010 9:57 AM<BR>> To: Andrew Oskam<BR>> Cc: Tom Sykes;
ausnog@ausnog.net<BR>> Subject: Re: [AusNOG] background radiation was: "i
want a pony!" (was<BR>> Re:Long live the NBN. The NBN is dead?!
[personal])<BR>><BR>> Yea come on guys.<BR>><BR>> Botnet providers
would only need maybe 10 bots to successfully bring<BR>> down a 100mbit
datacenter connection without the bot infected pc<BR>> owners finding
out.<BR>><BR>> Or even better, you could brute force a data center
server and have<BR>> the only bottleneck being both end-points processors,
no longer the<BR>> slow 6mbit DSL or such.<BR>><BR>> Think of the
positives guys!<BR>><BR>> But more importantly. I like the fact that I
could actually get<BR>> employee's to start working properly from home.
E.G, they have a<BR>> netbook loaded up with just a thin client then they
have their work<BR>> pc, that they can connect from they're home 100mbit
fibre, work<BR>> 100mbit LAN or 42mbit (Telstra's just about got them out)
mobile<BR>> internet card. Seriously, when I can have mobile employee's
connecting<BR>> to a virtualised pc at work, my life becomes a lot
easier.<BR>><BR>> Also, the other positive is the possibility for people
to be able to<BR>> do home / SoHo offsite backups. House fires, floods and
other natural<BR>> disasters... Thief... All wouldn't matter as much
anymore. Because<BR>> your data would be safe...<BR>><BR>> Just my 2
cents.<BR>><BR>> Dan<BR>><BR>> On Thu, Aug 12, 2010 at 7:15 AM,
Andrew Oskam <percy@th3interw3bs.net><BR>> wrote:<BR>>> I also
dislike that people either forget or assume that the Internet will<BR>>>
be the same in 10 or 20 years.<BR>>><BR>>> Look how much it's
changed in 15.<BR>>><BR>>> In my own opinion we are are just
barely able to cope with the content we<BR>>> have now on the current
model.<BR>>><BR>>> Sent from my iPhone<BR>>>
-------------<BR>>> Andrew Oskam<BR>>><BR>>> On 11/08/2010,
at 11:46 PM, Adrian Chadd <adrian@creative.net.au>
wrote:<BR>>><BR>>>> On Wed, Aug 11, 2010, Anand Kumria
wrote:<BR>>>><BR>>>>>> to 3, that means in the
slightly above average case there are 5 people<BR>>>>>> living
in a residence. If each of those people wants to conduct a
high<BR>>>>>> definition video conference at the same time,
that is approximately 5 x<BR>>>>>> 8 Mbps symmetric bandwidth
[0], or 40Mbps. That is of course peak<BR>>>>>> bandwidth, and
worst case. 3 children is not that common, and I think
5<BR>>>>>> concurrent HD video conferences is even less likely
to happen. However,<BR>>>>>> it is a feasible and possible use
case.<BR>>>>>><BR>>>>>> So what is the other
60Mbps for?<BR>>>>>><BR>>>><BR>>>> Whatever
the hell people dream up.<BR>>>><BR>>>>> I see that close
to 30% utilisation across some (others have close to<BR>>>>>
10%)<BR>>>>> of my DSL links is just Internet background
radiation.<BR>>>><BR>>>>> I assume things will be even
less predictable when TV providers decide<BR>>>>>
to<BR>>>>> 'pre-stream' shows to a bunch of households as
well.<BR>>>><BR>>>> I dislike how people keep focusing on
traditional media rather than<BR>>>> wondering<BR>>>> what
people could do with it.<BR>>>><BR>>>> (Besides porn, of
course.)<BR>>>><BR>>>><BR>>>>
Adrian<BR>>>><BR>>>>
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