<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Message</TITLE>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=us-ascii">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2900.3492" name=GENERATOR></HEAD>
<BODY
style="WORD-WRAP: break-word; webkit-nbsp-mode: space; webkit-line-break: after-white-space">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=718544700-14042009>Something else to add to the business case -
</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Online <SPAN
class=718544700-14042009>annual </SPAN>sales <SPAN
class=718544700-14042009>to June </SPAN><SPAN class=718544700-14042009>2006
</SPAN>in Aus- $11B<SPAN class=718544700-14042009>[1]</SPAN>. So that's $1B in
direct GST revenue.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A
href="http://www.jhemans.powerup.com.au/internet_statistics/australian-internet-ecommerce-statistics.htm"><FONT
face=Arial><FONT size=2><SPAN class=718544700-14042009><FONT color=#0000ff>[1]
</FONT></SPAN>http://www.jhemans.powerup.com.au/internet_statistics/australian-internet-ecommerce-statistics.htm</FONT></FONT></A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>One of the benefits in the govt doing
this<SPAN class=718544700-14042009>;</SPAN> Govt could spend $1B a year on
internet infrastructure and still be in the black.<SPAN
class=718544700-14042009> I guess the counter argument is that's a bit
over-simplified, but then there's also the other indirect taxes - company taxes,
personal taxes of the employees etc...</SPAN><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=718544700-14042009><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>From a
federal government perspective, the revenue from this infrastructure is more
than just the direct revenue.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=718544700-14042009><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=718544700-14042009><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>I'm
thinking allong the lines on how other infrastructure like non-toll
roads/highways, water infrastructure etc... are
financially justified.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=718544700-14042009><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=718544700-14042009><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=718544700-14042009><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=718544700-14042009><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>--
Craig Meyers</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader lang=en-us dir=ltr align=left><FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
ausnog-bounces@lists.ausnog.net [mailto:ausnog-bounces@lists.ausnog.net] <B>On
Behalf Of </B>Matthew Moyle-Croft<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, 14 April 2009 10:45
AM<BR><B>To:</B> lists<BR><B>Cc:</B> ausnog@ausnog.net; Bevan
Slattery<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [AusNOG] Aust Govt will build National
Broadband Network,no company will be awarded the
tender.<BR><BR></FONT></DIV><BR>
<DIV>
<DIV>On 14/04/2009, at 8:43 AM, lists wrote:</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE type="cite"><SPAN class=Apple-style-span
style="WORD-SPACING: 0px; FONT: 12px Helvetica; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; LETTER-SPACING: normal; BORDER-COLLAPSE: separate; orphans: 2; widows: 2; webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0">
<DIV bgcolor="#ffffff">
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: rgb(0,0,0) 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"><BR><FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: rgb(0,0,0) 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"><FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>It would be good to see debate focus on
how a business case could be put together, rather than snipping at what
some say. Personally I can't see how a business case can be put
together to build from scratch. I still remember the commindicos and
one tels and others. Great ides, but in the end they didn't
work. For mine, show me a business plan and I will be
converted. A press release does not cut it for me.</FONT>
<DIV><BR></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV></SPAN></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV>Whilst normally
large scale modelling etc is left to expensive consulting firms etc, I think
it might be worth trying to spend time building our own as an "open" model.
I'm sure it'll be an iterative thing - start with broad sweeping
numbers and refine and we have the knowledge to build a reasonable one at some
level.
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Important things are to capture sensitivities, assumptions (what and from
whom etc), as well as an alternate model that takes in anything the government
says to try and "reverse engineer" what they say.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>A simple and dumb spreadsheet to start with leads to some interesting
graphs when you look at sensitivity to:</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>- take up rates (0-10m)</DIV>
<DIV>- cost of money and ROI</DIV>
<DIV>- size of build </DIV>
<DIV>- backhaul assumptions/costs/build</DIV>
<DIV>- %age underground/above ground</DIV>
<DIV>- %non-FTTP</DIV>
<DIV>- type of FTTP (pt-to-pt, PON style etc)</DIV>
<DIV>- aggregation sites - how many? where? what if I have or can buy backhaul
(eg. from PIPE)?</DIV>
<DIV>- what happens when you build to x% of the population or say "x km from
CBD of major cities etc".</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>We can start with really simple assumptions and just leave places to
refine them. But having graphs to show what's happening and why it
will/won't work given certain assumptions or what assumptions we might want to
make to get a working model I think is very valuable.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>MMC</DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV apple-content-edited="true"><SPAN class=Apple-style-span
style="WORD-SPACING: 0px; FONT: 12px Helvetica; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; LETTER-SPACING: normal; BORDER-COLLAPSE: separate; orphans: 2; widows: 2; webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0">
<DIV
style="WORD-WRAP: break-word; webkit-nbsp-mode: space; webkit-line-break: after-white-space"><SPAN
class=Apple-style-span
style="WORD-SPACING: 0px; FONT: 12px Helvetica; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; LETTER-SPACING: normal; BORDER-COLLAPSE: separate; orphans: 2; widows: 2; webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">
<DIV
style="WORD-WRAP: break-word; webkit-nbsp-mode: space; webkit-line-break: after-white-space"><SPAN
class=Apple-style-span
style="WORD-SPACING: 0px; FONT: 12px Helvetica; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; LETTER-SPACING: normal; BORDER-COLLAPSE: separate; orphans: 2; widows: 2; webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">
<DIV
style="WORD-WRAP: break-word; webkit-nbsp-mode: space; webkit-line-break: after-white-space">
<DIV>-- <BR>Matthew Moyle-Croft </DIV>
<DIV>Networks, Internode/Agile<BR>Level 5, 162 Grenfell Street, Adelaide, SA
5000 Australia<BR>Email: <A
href="mailto:mmc@internode.com.au">mmc@internode.com.au</A>
Web: <A href="http://www.on.net/">http://www.on.net</A><BR>Direct:
+61-8-8228-2909<SPAN class=Apple-tab-span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre">
</SPAN><SPAN class=Apple-tab-span
style="WHITE-SPACE: pre"></SPAN> Mobile:
+61-419-900-366<BR>Reception: +61-8-8228-2999 Fax:
+61-8-8235-6909<BR></DIV></DIV></SPAN></DIV></SPAN></DIV></SPAN></DIV><BR></DIV></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>