[AusNOG] Contention, congestion, and link capacity planning

[paul+ausnog at oxygennetworks.com.au]

Hi All, I was hoping to gain some thoughts from the list around contention and backhaul link capacity planning.
 
We are working on some new site plans and have plenty of existing sites to draw usage statistics from when it comes to capacity planning, typically all of our backhaul links are running pretty low contention as all of our customers are business customers, but I am wondering if anybody has any formulas they have used successfully in the past.
 
Being that we only provide business Ethernet connections planning is usually pretty straight forward, but in modelling some expansion plans I want to try and actually wrap something around the planning process for backhaul capacity.
 
For example, 1 x 50M customer will clearly need 50M of backhaul from the POP they connect to, but what about 2, or 4, or 10 ?
You could easily surmise that 2 x 50M customers don't need 100M of backhaul unless they are very heavy users, so let's say they may need 75M, but this requirement for backhaul is realistically a sliding scale as the customers and bandwidth requirements grow the backhaul is not necessarily going to need to grow at the same rate.
 
I have worked this stuff out for some time now manually and had good results, our customers are happy, but I was hoping there would be some sort of calculation or formula that I could apply to some modelling figures which would give me a pretty close indication of requirements.
 
Thanks in advance
 
Regards
Paul
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