[AusNOG] Average Usage Per Service

Mon May 12 13:08:51 EST 2014

Yes, I am looking for a figure that providers might use in planning
capacity.  In a network where congestion isn't an issue is what I am
looking for.

Transit scaling is not actually what I am looking for here, but mainly
scaling of throughput capability of the network routers/LNS.

Re Transit/Backhaul you need to start with a certain minimum regardless of
contention ratio... you can't have 10 x 100mb users (1Gb) at 50:1
(residential average) and get away with 20mb.  In that scenario you'd need
a baseline of 80-150mb, realising that a couple of users could smash the
contended parts of your network.  It also depends on the types of services
such as Private networks which will affect backhaul (AGVC) but not transit.

Transit costs are actually cheaper than most AGVC pricing out there at the
moment but overall they are easy to upgrade.

The core infrastructure isn't as easy to upgrade without major surgery, and
I am trying to put together some metrics as a guideline for micro-isp's and
the equipment they can start with and when they will need to scale out.
 This isn't like the old days where you can throw a Cisco 7200 G1 and have
hundreds or thousands of services... now with NBN speeds the world is a
very different place... but small providers can't jump in with kit designed
to do 5-20Gb of throughput, often due to costs and licensing.

So I am wondering based on some mix of speeds, how far will a Cisco 7201
(1GbTP) get you these days, or a Cisco 1002-F (2.5GbTP) to bootstrap the
ISP into viability.

...Skeeve

*Skeeve Stevens - *eintellego Networks Pty Ltd
skeeve at eintellegonetworks.com ; www.eintellegonetworks.com

Phone: 1300 239 038; Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve

facebook.com/eintellegonetworks ;  <http://twitter.com/networkceoau>
linkedin.com/in/skeeve

twitter.com/theispguy ; blog: www.theispguy.com

The Experts Who The Experts Call
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On Mon, May 12, 2014 at 12:13 PM, Joshua D'Alton <joshua at railgun.com.au>wrote:

> That would make sense, if congested obviously the max available = max used
> = customers*average, but if a network is not run congested then available
> != max used, or somewhere in between max available = %congestion x max
> used, or the ultimate question is, what level of congestion delivers what
> (acceptable) user experience. Adding in AGVC congestion as another
> congestion point (although that = the current, just different backhaul).
> Think that is what Skeeve was after. Rather than the simple answer of 2000
> customers with 2Gbit transit = 300GB/mo average, or 1.2TB for 20%, 75GB for
> 80%
>
> Hah Jeremy.
>
>
> On Mon, May 12, 2014 at 11:43 AM, Narelle <narellec at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>>
>> In my experience the usage of a retail customer was directly proportional
>> to the overall international bandwidth available to the network. ie total
>> capacity divided by the number of users
>>
>> No matter how many times I did the maths, it always ended up about
>> that... I'll be very surprised when that changes.
>>
>>
>> Narelle
>>
>>
>> On Mon, May 12, 2014 at 9:20 AM, Joshua D'Alton <joshua at railgun.com.au>wrote:
>>
>>> I recently did some maths to help a friend with capacity planning with
>>> an idea he had (wireless not fiber, but medium agnostic generally) and we
>>> spit out a few different figures in terms of expected GB usage per month,
>>> peak usage if we gave everyone more than enough (ie 100Mbit vs 50Mbit
>>> (wireless g vs n), max agvc (well more just backhaul from basestation to
>>> blah, max transit), and then the actual amount we'd sell which made
>>> business sense (ie profit).
>>>
>>> Surprisingly there was not a whole lot of difference between them,
>>> burstability (ie 100mb 'NBN' vs 50) obviously impacted the peak the worst,
>>> but applying 95th to that brought it down to within 20-30% of the business
>>> sense figures. This was with about 500mbit internet (so give perhaps 10-15%
>>> internal traffic), and 1200 customers. I'd expect at gbit+ (and say 2k
>>> customers) that things would be settling down even further. Residential
>>> usage as well.
>>>
>>> This method is something I've come up with from experience with
>>> dedicated servers VPS VPN and similar, so it might not be 100% applicable
>>> as what someone else may offer up, but I'd expect usage from
>>> 100/1000/10Gbit servers (ie high burst) to be a little more applicable than
>>> plain old DSL (low burst relatively speaking).
>>>
>>> Might be a bit of a business 'secret', but maybe someone from iiNet/Node
>>> would be friendly and look over your figures ;)
>>>
>>>
>>> On Sun, May 11, 2014 at 11:36 PM, Skeeve Stevens <
>>> skeeve+ausnog at eintellegonetworks.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Hey all,
>>>>
>>>> Just doing some math and capacity planning and I am wondering what
>>>> others use for numbers for the average usage of a service per user?
>>>>
>>>> I am working with NBN-like speeds of 12mb, 25, 50 and 100.
>>>>
>>>> Back in the day I used to factor it in at around 30% when we were doing
>>>> dialup and low-speed DSL... and on ADSL2 I normally factored it at around
>>>> 15%.
>>>>
>>>> But I am wondering what people use for NBN-like speeds.  I am thinking
>>>> that a percentage is probably not a realistic measurement anymore as there
>>>> is no particular reason a 25, 50 or 100mb user would do more or less on
>>>> average... they just have the capacity to do more.
>>>>
>>>> Does anyone else have any thoughts they are willing to share, or even
>>>> real observations across a significant number (thousands) of customers that
>>>> they use for bandwidth (agvc and/or transit) planning?
>>>>
>>>> Feel free to off-list if you want to keep the information anonymous...
>>>> I am happy to publish some findings and a spreadsheet for the use of others.
>>>>
>>>> Thanks all.
>>>>
>>>> ...Skeeve
>>>>
>>>> *Skeeve Stevens - *eintellego Networks Pty Ltd
>>>>  skeeve at eintellegonetworks.com ; www.eintellegonetworks.com
>>>>
>>>> Phone: 1300 239 038; Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve
>>>>
>>>> facebook.com/eintellegonetworks ;  <http://twitter.com/networkceoau>
>>>> linkedin.com/in/skeeve
>>>>
>>>> twitter.com/theispguy ; blog: www.theispguy.com
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> The Experts Who The Experts Call
>>>> Juniper - Cisco - Cloud - Consulting - IPv4 Brokering
>>>>
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>>>>
>>>>
>>>
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>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>>
>> Narelle
>> narellec at gmail.com
>>
>
>
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