[AusNOG] IPv4

Jared Hirst jared.hirst at serversaustralia.com.au
Sun Mar 3 19:51:56 EST 2013

Rather than selling the un-used space, wouldn’t the better thing to do is
hand it back? Isn’t this the APNIC policy?

*From:* ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net [mailto:
ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] *On Behalf Of *Skeeve Stevens
*Sent:* Sunday, March 03, 2013 7:47 PM
*To:* Mark Newton
*Cc:* AusNOG at lists.ausnog.net
*Subject:* Re: [AusNOG] IPv4

Yeah, I see your point... which is why I am in the same state of mind,
being 'yeah whatever, get over it people'.

When ISOC was going all nuts over IPv6 Day and running around rar raring
v6, I couldn't care less to be honest.  My view is that ipv6
is inevitable and we just simply have to wait for those laggerts to see the
error of their ways by not doing it sooner.

v4 is around $16ish per IP on transactions I've seen lately... but that is
only for larger blocks of /20+. But I do expect that it will rise $2-5 per
IP per year by the end of this year, maybe $7 next year and it will go
stupid after that.

Right now there are people with excess space, like me with the /20 I sold
recently... but pretty soon most space not actively being used will start
to run out... and the prices could do anything.  I even see business
acquisitions happening based on address space stock... maybe next year.


*Skeeve Stevens - *eintellego Networks Pty Ltd

skeeve at eintellegonetworks.com ; www.eintellegonetworks.com

Phone: 1300 239 038; Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve

facebook.com/eintellegonetworks ; linkedin.com/in/skeeve

twitter.com/networkceoau ; blog: www.network-ceo.net

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On Sun, Mar 3, 2013 at 7:33 PM, Mark Newton <newton at atdot.dotat.org> wrote:

On 03/03/2013, at 18:14, Skeeve Stevens <
skeeve+ausnog at eintellegonetworks.com> wrote:

Was v4 allocations screwed? I don't know.  We didn't know what was going to
happen 20 years ago...

Yeah we did. That's why we implemented CIDR in the early 1990s and got
cracking on IPng.

Any suggestion that what's happening right now wasn't both foreseeable *and
actually foreseen* 20 years ago is pretty revisionist!

I think that's why some of us are pretty relaxed about what's happening
with IPv4 at the moment: we've all had a lot of time to come to grips with
it, we've all made our predictions about how it'd play out, we all knew
what'd happen if the industry didn't do anything about it. They didn't do
anything about it, and now it's all coming true. It's not some kind of
surprise that everyone is supposed to panic about, though.

Things will get a lot worse before they get better: CGNs have barely even
begun to be deployed yet, and there'll be a whole mountain of pain, anguish
and teeth gnashing coming from them when they're commonplace.

Meanwhile everyone keeps arguing about the last /8 as if it's important or
something; in a world where you can get all the IPv4 address space you want
by simply spending money on buying it.

The price is currently low. Supply and demand will make the cost of
acquiring IPv4 inexorably rise until it exceeds the cost of switching to
IPv6, at which point demand will start to fall off, and a new equilibrium
will be met. The price over time will look like a bell curve with a long
tail, and we're juuuuust starting to climb the left hand side...

    - mark
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