[AusNOG] NBN Review shows FTTN blowout of 12bn, FTTH blowout of 29bn

Beeson, Ayden ABeeson at csu.edu.au
Thu Dec 12 15:02:51 EST 2013

Wow. Just wow.

Read through this and a lot of other stuff, I basically got a few key points:

1. It's going to cost a lot more than expected and be a lot slower to roll out, yet somehow they have sold that as a good thing (see point 2.)
2. Made up / vague references to "probable" cost blow-outs and delays that FTTP would have experienced (dubious political spin here, but whatever)
3. Shifting of the speed promise from the end user to the ISP - Effectively "We can't guarantee any speed at all over the copper, so we will promise to the wholesale level where the fibre goes, the rest is pot luck"

My favourite is number 3, they snuck that one in there with some careful wording that still makes it look like they are giving us all a minimum speed, whereas in reality you are likely to be just as worse off (or debatably even worse depending on your copper and the final distance to the node). That's the poke in the eye for me, I always saw fibre as a great way to get more speed, but more than that, a much more reliable medium with a clear resolution path for faults, to say I'm disappointed in this would be an understatement.

All this "quality NBN" can be Australia's for the low low price of only $30->$40b+, what a bargain!

There is one nice thing in there; they said FTTP rollouts will continue in brownfields till 2018 so that may end up covering me in Albury if I'm lucky.

Ayden Beeson

-----Original Message-----
From: AusNOG [mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of francisfides at mailup.net
Sent: Thursday, 12 December 2013 12:44 PM
To: AusNOG at lists.ausnog.net
Subject: [AusNOG] NBN Review shows FTTN blowout of 12bn, FTTH blowout of 29bn

A review of the National Broadband Network says the Coalition's plan will be billions of dollars more expensive than promised before the election.

The strategic review states the Government's proposed fibre-to-the-node-based network would require around $12 billion more than estimated in the Coalition's April 2013 policy.

Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull said his policy assumed NBN Co was doing better than it actually was.

"We assumed they would be able to meet their forecasts and a year earlier than has been assumed in the study," Mr Turnbull said.

He said the Government would not pay any extra to NBN Co and that the extra funding would come from debt.

The Coalition's policy promised to give most Australians the option to connect to a 25 megabit per second network by 2016, but the review found that was extremely unrealistic.

It found less than half of the country would have access to those speeds by 2016.

The Coalition's policy also promised to have 50mbps available by 2019 and the review supports this, with 91 per cent of premises expected to have access to those speeds.

The report also found Labor's fibre-to-the-home approach would cost an extra $29 billion in capital expenditure and take an extra three years to rollout.

The review found that the current corporate plan had "blind faith" in the achievability of the targets.

"The Independent Assessment concluded that ... it is extremely optimistic and very unlikely to be achieved," the report said.

It also canvassed a scenario looking at the cheapest possible fibre to the home option, which was still assumed to be $20 billion more expensive.


Link to the report here:


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