[AusNOG] My Predictions for the ISP Industry

[Jake Anderson]

it is
NOBODY IS GOING TO SWITCH OFF IPv4!!!!
that won't happen
nobody has said it will
nobody has implied it will
plenty of people seem to be arguing against turning off IPv4 for some 
reason, which is weird because nobody said to turn it off.

IPv4 will be around in a multi layer natted twisted and tortured form 
for a long long time, and then longer behind private networks running 
legacy code.

The only sensible approach is dual stack which is what is being rolled out.
everybody gets ipv4 access in some form, for the time being its in 
public rout-able ip addresses soon it will be in the form of some kind 
of dodgy nat.
everybody will also get a big block of ipv6 addresses, which work the 
way ipv4 used to, and are given out like confetti.

Eventually IPv4 will go the way of gopher and usenet.
Sure you can still use it, but its more of a novelty used by a minority 
than the foundation of the Internet, one by one ISP's will stop 
bothering with it and the outraged screams of the two people still using 
it will fall of deaf ears.
They will tell you to use an ipv4 tunnel-broker or something like that


On 03/15/2012 11:30 AM, Darren Moss wrote:
> Hello Gents and Noggers,
>
> Why is this change not handled like analogue to digital radio ?
>
> Simulcast on both for testing, then once the uptake is there, shutdown the old network.
>
> Surely the benefits of obtaining IPv6 ranges -vs- no more IPv4 ranges would be a big draw card for mediums and corporates, which then paves the way for consumers to get onboard.
>
> Now.. if only IPv6 meant faster internet :)
>
> Regards,
>
>
> Darren.
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net [mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of Mark Andrews
> Sent: Thursday, 15 March 2012 11:24 AM
> To: Mark Delany
> Cc: ausnog at lists.ausnog.net
> Subject: Re: [AusNOG] My Predictions for the ISP Industry
>
>
> In message<20120315000436.39820.qmail at f5-external.bushwire.net>, "Mark Delany"
>   writes:
>> On 14Mar12, Leo Vegoda allegedly wrote:
>>
>>>> You need to explain why a business would voluntarily stop
>>>> listening to
>>>> IPv4 traffic and why ISPs would stop carrying it.
>>> I can't tell you the decade but I would have thought the decision
>>> for a commercial organisation would be relatively simple. If it
>>> costs more money to maintain an IPv4 service than is made by its
>>> presence then commercial organisations would be motivated to remove
>>> the IPv4 service. After all, they're in business to make profits.
>> True of course. Though if folk have to run dual stack for a number of
>> years, would you expect the maintenance burden to be very high?
>>
>> Quite possibly the opportunity cost of v4 addresses may become the
>> dominant economic factor in the earlier years. But at some point that
>> market will start to decline pretty rapidly.
>>
>>
>> One cost that isn't talked about much is the transition for
>> application s/w and databases. While there is plenty of evidence that
>> stacks and routers are good at v6 support these days, I wonder about
>> the state of network related applications written over the last 15
>> years or so.
>>
>> E.g, how much running code blithely copies gethostbyname() responses
>> with an int32? Or assumes that the string representation in a database
>> is<= 15 bytes?  Or uses a hand-written dotted quad config parser?
>>
>> Sure it's bad programming, but there are a lot of bad programmers.
>>
>> What worries me most about these is that if their service provider or
>> IT dept. helpfully shields them behind 6to4s then they're going to get
>> a nasty shock very late in the day when they finally come out of
>> hiding.
> Which is why many of us have been saying for years.  Turn IPv6 on and test everything.
>
>> Mark.
>> _______________________________________________
>> AusNOG mailing list
>> AusNOG at lists.ausnog.net
>> http://lists.ausnog.net/mailman/listinfo/ausnog
> --
> Mark Andrews, ISC
> 1 Seymour St., Dundas Valley, NSW 2117, Australia
> PHONE: +61 2 9871 4742                 INTERNET: marka at isc.org
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