[AusNOG] Backhaul providers lobby against NBN POI proposal
Mark Smith
nanog at 85d5b20a518b8f6864949bd940457dc124746ddc.nosense.org
Sun Nov 14 19:25:57 EST 2010
On Sun, 14 Nov 2010 16:56:45 +1000
"Tim McCullagh" <technical at halenet.com.au> wrote:
> Very well put Bevan
>
> and can I add one other aspect to it.
>
There are other potential indirect impacts -
- has the ADSL CPE market started dropping off, because people don't
know what they'll need to connect to the NBN?
- some of that ADSL CPE uncertainty may cause people considering buying
new ADSL CPE to change to wireless Internet services because there is
more certainty in the availability of that service and they'll also
be sure they're not buying CPE which could be obsoleted by NBNco in
e.g. less than six months if they get nominated as an early NBN
deployment region. Causing people to re-evaluate their past
decisions, e.g. choosing ADSL for Internet access, by creating
uncertainty, gives them a new opportunity to change that decision.
- in a market where customers own the CPE, uncertainty in the CPE
market is going to make convincing end-users to buy IPv6 capable CPE
harder than if it was just part of their normal ADSL CPE refresh cycle
- the 14 POIs are going to be huge concentrations of telecommuncations
infrastructure, and very large transit points of Internet traffic
(without the CSAs, the NBN is a huge layer 2 hub-and-spoke network,
with the POIs being the hubs, and consequently, for most if
not all services, will also be a huge layer 3 hub-and-spoke network as
well - ISPs will want to enforce that because layer 3
points-of-interconect (PPP/PPPoE terminating BRASes/LNSes or Cable
CMTS) are where they both deliver and bill for their services. These
POIs will be huge data centres. If you were to invest the millions in
building them, why wouldn't you also create infrastructure capacity
for hosted/content services in the same site, placing the data and
processing closest to the end-user traffic's first hop? Even if other
data centres remote from the POIs are able to offer cheaper hosting
service, to make up for the lack of locality to the majority of
traffic's trajectory, those other DCs will also have to wear the cost
of the traffic leaving and then being sent back to the POI. So
now NBNco will now also in the data center game, not just replacing
the copper CAN.
- if these POIs become huge data centers, hosting content/services as
well as all RSP layer 3 devices, a flood, fire or other accident at
one of them will be catastrophic. Sure, services are likely to be
able to be delivered out of the other one (although universal 1:1
redundancy will be extremely expensive), however the time to recover
from a significantly damaged or destroyed POI will likely be weeks if
not months. The whole state running on a single POI for that sort of
period would be extremely vulnerable. It is also worth remembering
that accidents or natural disaster aren't the only causes of
telecommunications infrastructure outages.
> I spoke to a fellow that contracts to service stream (telstra) today, he
> didn't have a job for 7 weeks because of the uncertainty and reduced Telstra
> investment, he told me another fellow with a couple of million dollars worth
> of equipment is using one of his bulldozers to build dams for people no work
> in the comms area. I know of three contractors that have gone broke. How
> can this be good in the long run. Those fellows all built up businesses as
> contractors and now because of the NBN promise / idea / folly the industry
> investment has dried up and they are out of work. Similar the the Pink
> batts fiasco. And the stop and start solar industry.
>
> If Telstra and others stop investing now what condition will the network be
> in by the time the NBN is built if it ever is.
>
> The issue that many on this list don't understand is that there has been
> under investment in some areas because the risk of doing business is simply
> to high given that the governements of all persuasions have been
> interferring since around 1998. I am sure there would have been many more
> deployments of FTTH and Wireless austraila wide if not for the risk posed by
> government. In fact one such decision by DBCDE in 2007 almost wiped out the
> wireless industry. Many smaller telcos got caught with non performing
> assets. I know one that had invested 4.5 million and was told to bad so sad.
> If people really want to know talk to someone in this industry that signs
> the front of the cheques. For those that don't care, no problems as Bevan
> said "be carefull what you wish for as you may just get it". Then some
> others may say to bad so sad as well. There will be no coming back. NBN co
> is spending $7400 per home passed and someone has to pay. Take a look at
> who, there is a good case study in the south east queensland water grid.
> Water prices have risen upto 70% this year alone and there is a warning that
> those prices will double over the next 10 years. Some carefull research of
> the PMG days may be a good start for some in the comms area.
>
>
> Regards
>
> Tim
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Bevan Slattery" <Bevan.Slattery at nextdc.com>
> To: "Skeeve Stevens" <Skeeve at eintellego.net>; "Kai" <vk6ksj at westnet.com.au>;
> "ausnog" <ausnog at ausnog.net>
> Sent: Sunday, November 14, 2010 3:03 PM
> Subject: Re: [AusNOG] Backhaul providers lobby against NBN POI proposal
>
>
> > Skeeve,
> >
> > Whilst I agree with many points in the concept, I think too many people
> > have drank the cool-aide and simply are not interested in the micro and
> > macro-economic issues which surround the effective crowding out of
> > competitive infrastructure to ultimately deliver a political directive.
> >
> > You simply have to look back at where Australia was with its last
> > Government owned telecommunications monopoly - Telecom Australia, to
> > understand that's it's easily possible to have world class infrastructure
> > which, in the absence of competition, is priced at a level which was/is
> > inconsistent with other OECD nations at the time. Furthermore you could
> > see many examples, where in the absence of competition Telstra delivered
> > products which were technically hobbled for commercial gain (think
> > 1500/256Kbps -v- 512/512Kbps ADSL maximum port speed from Telstra L2).
> > These products were designed not to provide the user with commercially
> > appropriate access to the technical capability of the product, but were
> > designed to extract the maximum return on investment in the absence of
> > competition. It was not until the likes of iiNet, Primus, TPG, Internode
> > and AAPT rolled out competitive infrastructure with competitive backhaul
> > that users in Australia actually got to see the benefit of broa
> > dband, rather than be forced to eat the **** sandwich the monopoly was
> > feeding everyone.
> >
> > NBN 2.0 is an incredibly dangerous cocktail of unchecked political
> > directive, without the transparency, accountability and consultation we
> > were promised. This project has already proceeded without a business plan
> > and a sincere model or cost-benefit analysis to understand it's impacts on
> > the country's productivity and accessibility to affordable broadband
> > solutions. Everyone agrees that at a Layer 1 level it is a technically
> > superior network for fixed line services, however like everything the
> > devil is in the detail and that sits as L2 and beyond.
> >
> > Regrettably many people are simply dismissing the views and opinions of
> > competitive infrastructure owners as having a 'vested interest'. I find
> > this rather insulting and at the same time as ironic. Insulting because
> > it is only with the investment of the competitive infrastructure providers
> > that has seen non-infrastructure providers flourish with new and exciting
> > product offerings. Insulting as IMHO those who have invested in
> > competitive infrastructure possibly have the best understanding of the
> > value it creates for others. I find it ironic as the people with the
> > biggest vested interest is those who haven't risked infrastructure
> > investment but those whose political career depends on the success of NBN
> > 2.0 seem to escape such claims.
> >
> > Regardless of peoples assertions, I can't remember many (or any) times
> > when every single competitive infrastructure based carrier (and the
> > respective industry associations), including Telstra, lined up and
> > provided a comprehensive and concerted response which highlighted how the
> > 14 PoI proposal disadvantages consumers, providers and competition. I
> > would strongly encourage people read the responses to gain a better
> > understanding of why this is a recipe for disaster.
> >
> > http://www.accc.gov.au/content/index.phtml/itemId/952292
> >
> > Within 12 months Mike Quigley went from "we will absolutely not overbuild
> > the competitive carrier infrastructure. To do so would be a waste of
> > national resources!" to now proposing to overbuild. I wonder what other
> > principles they are prepared to compromise for the sake of this project?
> > So far it's transparency, cost-benefit analysis, delivering a commercial
> > return, tax payer contribution of no more than $4.7B, overbuilding to name
> > just a few.
> >
> > As I'm now moving out of the telco landscape I will leave everyone with
> > one of my favourite lines and it's particularly pertinent wrt NBN 2.0 and
> > that is...
> >
> > "Be careful what you wish for... you might just get it!".
> >
> > [b]
> >
> > PS: I expect that the AAB will be calling for the Independents to
> > support Sen. Turnbulls Private Members Bill this week in an endeavour to
> > get *some* transparency and accountability into this Enron-esque "black
> > box" that is the NBN 2.0.
> >
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net [mailto:ausnog-
> >> bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of Skeeve Stevens
> >> Sent: Friday, 12 November 2010 3:21 PM
> >> To: Kai; ausnog
> >> Cc: ISOC-AU Members Discussion List
> >> Subject: Re: [AusNOG] Backhaul providers lobby against NBN POI proposal
> >>
> >> Thing is... everyone is going to lobby against something if it affects
> >> their
> >> business model.
> >>
> >> I'm not happy about the competitive backhaul being overbuilt, but I care
> >> just
> >> a little more about the regional population and them getting a fair go
> >> and
> >> equal services. It is one of the reasons I put my hat in the ring and
> >> became a
> >> Director of the Internet Society - end users are the heart and soul of
> >> the
> >> internet - in this country and everywhere.
> >>
> >> Originally NBNCo was not going to overbuild backhaul, and have some 100-
> >> 200+ PoI's, but then RSP's would probably cherry-pick which PoI's they
> >> would
> >> connect to... mainly due to cost issues and the expense involved in
> >> backhaul
> >> from the far regional pops.... which would raise the costs for the
> >> regional
> >> population. This is unacceptable.
> >>
> >> I am sympathetic to the backhaul providers... and maybe there is some
> >> sort
> >> of middle ground where NBNCo bought or leased their infrastructure, but
> >> the needs of regional Australians should come first - and NBNCo should be
> >> applauded for a model which makes those people equal to metro folk.
> >>
> >> There are whole vertical markets which are going to be affected by the
> >> NBN:
> >> - Greenfields estate infrastructure builders
> >> - Developers who have invested in infrastructure in their MDU's
> >> - Providers who deliver outsourced services into accommodation venues
> >> (like Universities), Aged Care, and other sites who may be overbuilt
> >>
> >> And we have many customers who are in the above areas and I understand
> >> that they've built businesses (we've helped them!) around these services
> >> which may now be in jeopardy - but I have been advising them that while
> >> it is
> >> good to get together in lobby groups and associations and lobby for what
> >> they see as their rights, make sure they are diversifying their
> >> businesses as
> >> well - because if they lose then they're out of business.
> >>
> >> Personally, I am 100% for the NBN. I believe it is like a 16 lane
> >> highway being
> >> delivered into every home and business. The internet runs in one of
> >> those
> >> lanes... and just like we expect the federal government to build
> >> highways - it
> >> is our job to build businesses that run over that highway.
> >>
> >> Some people say they don't want it... I believe it doesn't matter...
> >> every
> >> home should be connected so that the next owner, or tenant can use it if
> >> they like - everyone should have the choice and it doesn't harm anyone
> >> having the option there. Don't want it - don't order a service on it.
> >>
> >> A lot of people say that landline based services are on the decline and
> >> wireless is on the increase and that young people would more likely have
> >> 3G
> >> or wireless technologies than a cable in their house.... I agree - to a
> >> point -
> >> based on today's technology offerings.
> >>
> >> But if you can make a phone call and plug your PlayStation 5 into the NBN
> >> ONT and get a service with Sony Online and download games and participate
> >> in a dedicated low-latency high-speed gaming network - then 3G internet @
> >> home or not... I think this is the amazing sort of future we need to
> >> dream
> >> about. Telstra today is coming up with lots of ideas with the T-Box and
> >> other
> >> things. This is what we need to be thinking about - what can we use it
> >> for...
> >> how can we improve the lives of people - eHealth, Education,
> >> Entertainment,
> >> Communication.... the possibilities are limitless.
> >>
> >> There are so many ideas that have been coming up in meetings with clients
> >> that may be able to be run over the NBN I am just amazed. We need to
> >> think
> >> about what is possible and stop being so self interested in our own needs
> >> of
> >> today, and look forward on how we can improve everything to all of us.
> >>
> >> ...Skeeve
> >>
> >> (Not speaking as an ISOC-AU director, but clearly my opinions are
> >> obvious)
> >>
> >> --
> >> Skeeve Stevens, CEO
> >> eintellego Pty Ltd - The Networking Specialists
> >> skeeve at eintellego.net / www.eintellego.net
> >> Phone: 1300 753 383, Fax: (+612) 8572 9954
> >> Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 / skype://skeeve
> >> www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve ; facebook.com/eintellego
> >> --
> >> eintellego - The Experts that the Experts call
> >> - Juniper - HP Networking - Cisco - Brocade - Arista - Allied Telesis
> >>
> >>
> >> > -----Original Message-----
> >> > From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net [mailto:ausnog-
> >> > bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of Kai
> >> > Sent: Friday, 12 November 2010 1:20 PM
> >> > To: ausnog
> >> > Subject: [AusNOG] Backhaul providers lobby against NBN POI proposal
> >> >
> >> > Comments, anyone?
> >> >
> >> > Backhaul providers lobby against NBN POI proposal
> >> > http://itnews.com.au/News/238290,backhaul-providers-lobby-against-
> >> nbn-poi-
> >> > proposal.aspx
> >> > _______________________________________________
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> >> > AusNOG at lists.ausnog.net
> >> > http://lists.ausnog.net/mailman/listinfo/ausnog
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